The Turkish economy is estimated to have closed 2025 with a higher-than-expected growth, the World Bank said on Tuesday, as it upgraded its outlook for 2026 and 2027.
Türkiye's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have expanded by 3.5% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points higher than what the World Bank projected in June.
Activity was supported by solid domestic demand, particularly robust construction investment and monetary easing throughout the year, the bank said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report.
"International reserves and equity markets recovered following financial market volatility earlier in 2025, reflecting some easing of political tensions," it noted..
This year, growth in Türkiye is forecast to pick up to 3.7%, the bank said, up from its June forecast of 3.6%.
The World Bank expects private consumption growth to strengthen, supported by rising real wages amid continued gradual disinflation.
It said the current account deficit is expected to widen, while the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow, mainly reflecting reduced earthquake-related reconstruction spending.
For 2027, the bank upgraded its projection to 4.4% from 4.2%.
The revised forecasts place Türkiye among the faster-growing large emerging markets over the 2025-2027 period.
Globally, the World Bank said the economy is proving more resilient than expected, with 2026 GDP growth expected to improve slightly over forecasts from June.
It still warned that growth is too concentrated in advanced countries and overall too weak to reduce extreme poverty.
The bank expects world GDP growth of 2.6% this year. The figure is 0.2 percentage points higher than what it projected in June.
But the rate still marks a slowdown from the 2.7% pace seen in 2025, with the World Bank warning that the 2020s are "on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s."
Last year's growth exceeded the prior forecast by 0.4 percentage points. The report shows that global output growth is edging back to 2.7% in 2027.
The World Bank said about two-thirds of the upward revision for 2026 reflects better-than-expected growth in the U.S. despite tariff-driven trade disruptions.
It predicts U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.2% in 2026, compared to 2.1% in 2025 – up 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points from the June forecasts, respectively.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies will slow to 4% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025, up 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the last predictions, respectively.
But excluding China, the 2026 growth rate for this group will be 3.7%, unchanged from 2025, the World Bank said.
China's growth will slow to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.9%, but the forecasts are both up 0.4 percentage points from June due to fiscal stimulus and increased exports to non-U.S. markets.
Growth in the eurozone is set to slow to 0.9% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025 due to the drag from U.S. tariffs but recover to 1.2% in 2027 due to increases in European defense spending, the World Bank said.
Japan's outlook is much the same for 2026, with growth slowing to 0.8% after a rise of 1.3% in 2025, a year aided by the front-loading of exports to the U.S. to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs. But slower consumption and investment in Japan will keep GDP growth unchanged at 0.8% for 2027, the World Bank said.
