The last U.N. climate conference held in the heart of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil's Belem largely fell far short of what the world urgently needed, but Türkiye now has an opportunity to alter that course at COP31, according to an expert.
Expectations were high at COP30, held in Belem in November 2025, for a concrete, time-bound road map to phase out fossil fuels. Instead, the final document avoided any firm commitment to exiting fossil fuels, leaving what many consider the most critical issue of the climate crisis unresolved.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Ümit Şahin, coordinator of Climate Change Studies at Sabancı University’s Istanbul Policy Center, said COP30 was severely undermined by the absence of the U.S., one of history’s largest polluters, following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and pursue policies openly hostile to the expansion of renewable energy.
Despite Brazil’s symbolic decision to host the summit in Belem, deep in the Amazon rainforest, and early promises of decisive action on deforestation, no agreed road map emerged to halt and reverse forest loss – one of the most powerful tools for limiting global warming.
While COP30 established a just transition mechanism for workers and communities moving away from fossil fuels and agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035 under the New Collective Quantified Goal – targeting at least $300 billion annually in public finance and $1.3 trillion from all sources for developing countries – Şahin said these steps fell well short of the transformative action required.
"We expected landmark decisions on deforestation right there in the Amazon," he said. "Regrettably, that did not happen."
He added that while progress on adaptation finance is welcome, it remains insufficient given the rapidly growing needs of vulnerable countries.
The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), which Türkiye will host, is scheduled to take place from Nov. 9-20, 2026, primarily in Antalya on the Turkish Riviera, with a leaders’ summit in Istanbul.
Şahin noted that strong competition between Australia and Türkiye to host the conference has already raised expectations.
"COP31 is expected to be both ambitious and distinctive," he said.
He also highlighted growing climate cooperation among Mediterranean civil society organizations in recent years. Given the Antalya venue, he expects forest fires, heat waves, extreme temperatures and other Mediterranean-specific climate risks to feature prominently on the agenda for coastal countries.
"Deforestation was one of COP30’s clearest failures," Şahin reiterated. "I believe Türkiye has a genuine opportunity to drive progress on this issue at COP31."
Electrification, accelerating efforts to phase out fossil fuels and stronger mitigation commitments are also expected to dominate discussions, he added.
As host and president of COP31, Türkiye will face close scrutiny of its own climate policies, beginning with the ambition of its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Şahin said.
He stressed that hosting the summit requires credible leadership at home. Türkiye must fully embrace its 2053 net-zero pledge, publicly commit to a clear coal phase-out timeline and align national policies with global climate goals, according to Şahin.
"When you examine the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources’ National Energy Plan, an implicit coal exit is already visible," he said. "The figures show coal’s share declining significantly over the next decade. Based on our analysis at the Istanbul Policy Center, a complete coal phase-out by 2036 appears technically and economically feasible."
