Diesel prices across Europe and the U.S. have climbed to record highs as wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply cut exports from some of the biggest producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with further gains in view.
Diesel futures in Europe closed at an all-time high last week, having more than doubled their level at the beginning of 2026, after supply disruptions spread to the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia loads most of its diesel.
The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged oil refineries in the region, and refineries elsewhere are working hard to make fuel. In the U.S., for example, refineries operated at the highest level in eight years in late August, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"A key issue is that many refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity," the International Energy Agency said in a newsletter on Monday.
"This leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months."
Middle East diesel exports halved from March to August compared to a year earlier, averaging 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to shipping data from Kpler. The Middle East supplied nearly 41% of Europe’s diesel imports in 2025, Kpler data showed.
"Any further disruption to Red Sea flows risks tightening an already stretched global diesel market," said Kpler analyst George Shaw, adding that global diesel markets remain vulnerable as refining capacity continues to be the key pinch point.
Russia banned diesel exports in July as Ukrainian drone attacks cut Russian refinery production.
Ukraine and Russia have continued attacks on each other's energy infrastructure despite an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump last week that they had agreed to stop. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday he will meet with Trump in the coming days.
Russia, the world's second-biggest diesel exporter after the U.S., supplied significant volumes of diesel to Türkiye and Brazil before the ban, prompting such importers to seek alternative supplies since then.
In Europe – historically a net importer of diesel – stocks at the key refining and storage hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were at their lowest level for this time of the year on Sept. 10, according to data from Insights Global.
In the U.S., average retail diesel prices climbed above $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month.
Inventories remain below normal seasonal levels, even as refiners have been running near full tilt. Although diesel stocks rose by roughly 600,000 barrels last week, at 96.97 million barrels they remain nearly 15% below the average for the last five years for the second week in September.
In Asia, diesel prices are elevated as a result of Middle East and Russian supply disruptions and are close to record levels.
A benchmark for Asian diesel, diesel swaps, has eased from the March record high of more than $200 a barrel, hovering at around $180 a barrel on Sept. 18. Current levels are still twice the pre-war values.
China's lower diesel exports in the aftermath of the Iran war likely tightened global supplies, as the country's shipments declined by 26% in April-June from a year earlier due to a government decision to limit refined product exports.
But China's diesel exports recovered to reach their highest in nearly 2.5 years in August at 320,000 bpd, resulting in lower domestic stocks.
