Supply losses from Gulf countries and Russia are placing more pressure on the global diesel market, pushing up diesel prices and refining margins in import-dependent markets.
Intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export infrastructure, aimed at reducing Moscow's energy revenues, along with disruptions to oil and petroleum product exports from Gulf countries, have reduced diesel supplies to global markets.
Lower Gulf exports of diesel and gasoil have added to supply losses, while disruptions to Russia's refining system have put further upward pressure on diesel prices and refining margins.
Diesel prices in Germany and France rose from around 1.80 euros ($2.07) per liter on Feb. 27, the last trading day before the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, to around 2.40 euros by mid-September.
In the U.S., diesel prices stood at around $3.75 per gallon on Feb. 28, before rising above $6 for the first time on Sept. 11.
Diesel prices have also increased in Russia, rising from around 77 rubles (91 cents) per liter before Feb. 27 to 82-83 rubles by mid-September.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is deepening the squeeze in the diesel market as it affects not only crude oil supplies but also the direct trade of petroleum products.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
A sharp slowdown in these flows has increased supply losses, particularly for refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
A significant share of diesel and gasoil produced at Gulf refineries is transported by sea to markets in Asia, Europe and Africa. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, therefore, reduce the availability of finished diesel in global markets in addition to affecting crude oil supplies.
According to the IEA's September Oil Market Report, net diesel and gasoil exports from Gulf countries averaged 390,000 barrels per day in August, remaining only slightly above one-quarter of pre-war levels as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted.
Disruptions to Russia's refining system and a decline in product exports following intensified Ukrainian attacks have also contributed to the global supply losses.
Combined net diesel and gasoil exports from the Gulf countries and Russia were 1.6 million barrels per day lower in August than in February. The two regions accounted for around 45% of global seaborne petroleum product trade in February.
Tighter supply is supporting international diesel prices are also increasing the margins refiners earn from processing crude oil into refined products.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refining margins for distillate and jet fuel more than doubled year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, while gasoline refining margins increased by around 60%.
The IEA also said rising diesel cracks were a key factor behind record-high refining margins in the Atlantic Basin in August.
Diesel prices can move differently from gasoline prices as the global supply and demand dynamics of the two products diverge. Widely used in heavy transport, industry, agriculture and generators, diesel is a middle distillate product whose demand is closely linked to economic activity and energy supply.
In Türkiye, diesel prices are affected by international crude and refined product prices, the exchange rate, refinery or import prices, distributor and dealer margins, and taxes.
As a result, tighter global diesel supply and higher international product prices, combined with exchange rate movements, put upward pressure on pump prices in Türkiye.
Diesel prices in Türkiye rose from around TL 60-TL 62 ($1.23-$1.27) per liter on Feb. 27 to around TL 100 in September.
