Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro possesses the flexibility and incentive to use his country's crude oil exports, most of which currently go to China, as a key bargaining tool in potential negotiations with the U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, which has boosted its military presence in the Caribbean, has said he is open to talks with Maduro, whose government has struggled to lure foreign investment in the country's oilfields amid U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. on Monday formally designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization, increasing pressure on Maduro amid preparations to launch further operations in the coming days, according to sources.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member Venezuela's oil production has stabilized around 1.1 million barrels per day this year, less than a third of its all-time high in the late 1990s. More than 80% of exports were shipped to China between June and October, according to shipping data.
Those cargoes, alongside possible operating licenses for U.S. companies, could be Maduro's best leverage in any talks, analysts say.
"Sending more oil to the U.S. and protecting U.S. investment in Venezuela is something Maduro can easily offer," said energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell. However, the offer "might not be enough now that Washington has the upper hand," he said, referring to the oil market's current stability and low prices.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez said on Monday the U.S. has targeted Venezuela because of its vast crude reserves.
"They want Venezuela’s oil and gas reserves. For nothing, without paying," she said, having previously noted U.S. Gulf refiners' demand for Venezuela's heavy crude grades. The U.S. mainly produces light oil. Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. through a license to PDVSA's partner Chevron fell in the third quarter to half the volume of the first quarter.
Most of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA's supply contracts were suspended when the U.S. hit the country with sanctions in 2019, forcing PDVSA to sell almost all its oil on the spot market at large discounts.
Because PDVSA is no longer committed to long-term supply agreements, it could divert crude cargoes bound for Chinese independent refiners to the U.S. and Europe under a fresh political agreement.
Venezuela's Oil Ministry, PDVSA, the White House, and the U.S. State Department did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
Washington has for years blocked cash payments to PDVSA, but the oil company has vast experience with oil swaps that allow it to exchange its crude for much-needed fuel imports.
Venezuela's oil shipments to China have increased in the second half of 2025 to more than 80% of total exports, mainly due to U.S. policies preventing exports to other destinations, compared with 63% all of last year, according to LSEG tanker movement data and internal PDVSA documents seen by Reuters. That leaves room for diversifying the destination of exports.
Maduro's administration could also focus on negotiating the reincorporation of U.S. licenses to foreign oil producers in the country, as some Venezuelan officials have asked, which would allow oil exports to the U.S. and Europe to flow more freely.
Despite having the world's largest crude reserves, Maduro's administration has failed to allocate Venezuela's oilfields to experienced energy firms in recent years under a contract model he proposed, attracting only small investors that are not significantly contributing to the nation's output.
Most Western energy firms are not willing to invest following expropriations of foreign oil assets under former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez and the U.S. sanctions that followed, or to inject the massive capital required to revive Venezuela's aging energy industry. Such a revival effort would also be a huge challenge for the government's opposition, which is offering to reform Venezuela's oil industry if it takes office, as massive changes would be needed just to return to production levels of two decades ago.
Trump's administration has been inconsistent on authorizations, granting temporary licenses to some companies while freezing others.
