Iran's oil exports could grind to a halt and production could be cut in half if the United States and Israel were to seize the country's Kharg Island port, potentially prompting Tehran to launch additional attacks on regional energy infrastructure, JPMorgan said on Monday.
Axios reported on March 7 that the U.S. administration had discussed seizing the island, which sits some 30 km off Iran's coast in the Gulf and processes 90% of its crude exports.
"A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran's crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure," JPMorgan said in a note.
Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), pumps about 4.5% of global oil supplies, with output of about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude, plus 1.3 million bpd of condensate and other liquids.
During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, U.S. President Jimmy Carter imposed sanctions on Iran but refrained from ordering strikes on the island. His successor, Ronald Reagan, during the 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War, prioritized protecting shipping and targeting Iranian vessels and missile batteries, leaving Kharg untouched.
"Although Iraqi forces struck some terminals and tankers during the eight-year war, Kharg remained largely operational and damage was typically repaired quickly, demonstrating that disabling it would require sustained, large-scale attacks," JP Morgan said.
The island collects oil coming by pipeline from Iran's largest producing fields, including Ahvaz, Marun and Gachsaran.
In the days leading up to the U.S.-Israeli attack, Iran ramped up exports from Kharg to near record levels, loading over 3 million bpd over Feb. 15-20, nearly triple its normal export pace of around 1.3 million to 1.6 million bpd, according to JPMorgan.
Storage capacity on Kharg is estimated at roughly 30 million barrels and, according to Kpler, approximately 18 million barrels of crude are currently stored on the island, equivalent to roughly 10-12 days of exports under normal conditions.
Oil prices jumped to $119 per barrel on Monday, the highest level since mid-2022, as production cuts in the Middle East spread with Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) all affected.
