Türkiye could drastically reduce its emissions and almost double its economic gains by 2053 through more ambitious energy efficiency policies, a new report said on Friday.
Under the most optimistic assumptions, 90% of Türkiye's energy needs could be met by domestic sources by 2053, which would generate a cumulative economic benefit of $2.1 trillion.
That is according to the "Türkiye Energy Efficiency Outlook 2025" report prepared by Sabancı University's Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC).
The report suggests Türkiye's energy future could be fundamentally transformed through stronger efficiency measures.
The report contrasts two scenarios: a "Base Scenario," which assumes current policies continue, and an "Efficient Growth Scenario," which envisions expanded and strengthened efficiency measures.
The first scenario projects domestic energy sources would account for only 66% of supply by 2053, with a total benefit of $1.1 trillion. In contrast, the second scenario envisages that 90% of the country's energy needs could be supplied through domestic sources. This would generate a cumulative economic benefit of $2.1 trillion.
Cleaner energy sources, including renewables and nuclear, play a major role in both scenarios.
By 2053, nuclear energy's share of primary supply increases to 16% under current policies, and to 20% under the more ambitious scenario. Similarly, electricity takes on a central role, rising from 20% of final energy use in 2023 to 48% under the efficient scenario, versus 36% under the base scenario.
As losses in electricity generation decrease, the share of domestic and renewable sources, particularly solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels, rises significantly.
The benefits extend beyond energy supply and curbing hefty imports.
Energy-related emissions could fall by nearly 50%. Under the Efficient Growth Scenario scenario, energy-related emissions fall to 191 million tons of carbon equivalent by 2053, compared to 401 million tons in the Base Scenario.
The required average annual investment is $13 billion and $9 billion, respectively. This means that for every $1 billion invested, the efficient growth approach provides $4.5 billion in benefits, while the base scenario delivers $3.2 billion.
Additionally, energy intensity, a key metric for efficiency, declines by 57% between 2023 and 2053 under the efficient scenario, compared to 46% in the base case.
This improvement would bring Türkiye closer to energy standards seen in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which combine strong economies with lower energy intensity.
The Efficient Growth Scenario also demonstrates that Türkiye can achieve the same economic output with 21% less energy consumption.
This could be largely enabled by technologies like heat pumps in buildings, electric industrial processes, and electric vehicles. As a result, fossil fuel usage could drop to just 33% of final consumption.
To reach these goals, the report calls for a coordinated national effort involving increased investment, digital innovation, public awareness campaigns, and long-term strategic planning with collaboration across government, industry, and academia.
