New liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities coming online next year will offer significant benefits for gas-importing nations, including European countries, Türkiye, India and Japan, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The surge in global LNG supply, expected to begin in 2026 and continue over the following three years, will bring positive developments for Europe, IEA chief Fatih Birol told Anadolu Agency (AA).
Birol was speaking following his discussions in Brussels, where he met with Belgium's King Philippe, European Council President Antonio Costa, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
"A massive wave of LNG supply will soon hit the markets, which will help lower gas prices," he said, as several LNG projects launched six to seven years ago in the U.S. and Qatar are nearing completion.
This shift is particularly significant for gas-importing nations such as Europe and Türkiye, as the market transitions from being seller-dominated to favoring buyers, thereby strengthening the bargaining position of importing countries, he explained.
"This is good news for Europe, Türkiye, India and Japan," Birol noted.
According to IEA data, global LNG supply grew by about 2% last year, marking the slowest increase in four years at just 10 billion cubic meters (bcm).
However, LNG production is expected to rise by 6% this year, adding another 30 bcm, driven by several major projects coming online in North America.
Meanwhile, alongside Qatar’s expansion projects, LNG liquefaction plants that have reached a final investment decision or are under construction are expected to add over 270 bcm per year of export capacity by 2030.
Birol noted that natural gas prices in Europe have remained high, particularly due to cold weather conditions, and emphasized that the continent has yet to resolve its supply challenges.
EU nations aggressively worked to reduce their reliance on energy supplies from Russia since the start of its invasion of Ukraine three years ago, leading to a sharp increase in LNG imports.
This surge pushed gas and LNG prices to record highs, particularly in the European market.
But EU also has the challenge of dealing with threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who even before taking office in January warned the EU it would face trade tariffs unless it imported more oil and gas from the United States.
The U.S. is Europe's main supplier of LNG. Its purchases from the U.S. grew after Russia's war on Ukraine led the EU to drastically reduce its use of Russian pipeline gas.
Brussels wants to end the EU's reliance on Russia by 2027 but for now Moscow remains the EU's second-biggest LNG supplier.
The bloc has rapidly expanded its use of renewable energy, but its electricity market rules still rely on the price of gas, which hit two-year highs last week, to set the power price many European consumers pay.
"Energy prices in Europe are significantly higher compared to major economic powers like the U.S., China and India," Birol said.
"On average, natural gas prices in Europe are five times higher than in the U.S., while electricity prices are four times those in China," he said.
Noting that exports are the backbone of the European economy, Birol highlighted that the bloc remains the world’s largest exporting economy, surpassing both the U.S. and China.
However, the high cost of energy is eroding Europe's competitive edge in global trade, he warned. "As a result, the European economy, particularly its industrial sector, is facing a serious crisis."
"If a solution is not found, Europe's economy could face significant turbulence, leading to severe employment challenges," he said.
He stressed that one of Europe’s biggest challenges today is finding a way to restore its industrial sector to prewar conditions without major disruptions.
Birol also noted that nuclear power has become a major global focus, alongside energy security and clean energy transitions.
"With growing concerns over energy security, we are witnessing a strong nuclear revival," he said.
"Over 60 nuclear power plants are currently under construction worldwide, marking the largest expansion in the sector in 30 years," he stated.
The IEA chief added that nuclear power generation is expected to reach an all-time high this year.
During his discussions with Belgian government officials, Birol addressed the country's evolving stance on nuclear energy.
He pointed out that Belgium, which had initially planned to phase out its nuclear plants before the Russia-Ukraine war, is now considering building new ones.
He also highlighted that small modular reactors could emerge as a key innovation in nuclear energy starting in 2030.
Discussing Türkiye’s energy strategy, Birol commended the country’s efforts to diversify energy sources and expand its nuclear projects.
"Türkiye now sources gas from multiple suppliers, including Turkmenistan, and has made significant progress in renewable energy, particularly in wind and solar power," he said.
"Hopefully, Türkiye will take further steps in nuclear technology to broaden its energy portfolio," he added.
Birol also emphasized the potential for deeper energy cooperation between Türkiye and Europe, which could yield substantial benefits.
Pointing to Türkiye’s expertise in turbine manufacturing, he noted, "I see strong potential for collaboration between Türkiye and Europe in this field."
Türkiye also plays a crucial role in transporting gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and other suppliers to European markets, enhancing Europe’s energy diversity and security, he said.
