Countries scrambling this year to source more natural gas to replace supplies from Russia are risking years of emissions that could thwart climate goals, the research collaboration Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said on Thursday.
Efforts to stave off disastrous climate change collided this year with a global energy crisis of scarce gas and soaring fuel prices, as Russia sharply cut gas deliveries to Europe following its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
"We're witnessing a major push for expanded fossil gas LNG production and import capacity across the world – in Europe, Africa, North America, Asia and Australia – which could cause global emissions to breach dangerous levels," said Bill Hare, CEO of research institute Climate Analytics, which together with New Climate Institute forms (CAT).
The planned projects could emit 10% of the world's remaining carbon budget – the cumulative amount that can be emitted if warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) is to be avoided, CAT said. Among the projects are new gas drilling in Canada and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity in Germany and Vietnam.
Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change to attempt to stop greenhouse gases from heating the planet to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Scientists have said going past 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming would unleash far more severe climate impacts than the deadly wildfires, floods and rising seas already unfolding today. Currently, the world is 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter than preindustrial levels.
By October, Russian gas had plummeted to 7.5% of Europe's gas imports, down from 40% in recent years.
The dash to replace those supplies has bolstered plans to expand fossil fuel infrastructure, even as the European Union has proposed higher renewable energy targets to attempt to mostly replace Russian fuel with clean energy.
The International Energy Agency has said no new oil and gas fields should be opened if the world is hit the 1.5 Celsius goal.
CAT also calculated that countries' targets to cut emissions this decade would put the world on course for 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming, versus 1.8 degrees Celsius in a best-case scenario where countries achieved all of their announced pledges including 2050 goals – which would require tougher climate policies and far larger investments to shift to green energy.
