A record number of Americans had been expected to fly during the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, but the largest government shutdown ever dampened demand for one of the year's busiest travel seasons.
Many skittish travelers rethought their plans as cancellations and delays mounted while the shutdown wore on.
"It's not worth the mental strain and worry and what-ifs and if I get stranded, where am I going to get stuck?" said Elizabeth Kelley, 45. During the shutdown, she decided she would not fly home to Maine to visit family for Thanksgiving because she feared delays and cancellations. Her plans have not changed.
About 6 million U.S. travelers were expected to take domestic flights during the holiday, up 2% from 2024, according to the AAA. But bookings slowed after the shutdown hit the one-month mark. The steepest drop came during the final week when the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered flight cuts at 40 major airports.
As of November 24, flight bookings for the five-day holiday period are down 4.48% from a year ago, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Bookings were up 1.56% on October 31, but have steadily declined.
At Newark Airport on Monday, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said at a press conference that travelers should be confident but prepare for busy airports and potential weather issues.
"For us, this week is our Super Bowl, and I'm here to tell you, we've got a great plan," Beford said. "Please know you should fly with confidence."
Southwest Airlines said the shutdown and economic uncertainty made it difficult to forecast Thanksgiving demand. Delta Air Lines expects to fly roughly 6.5 million customers, similar to last year. Some airlines were planning for a surge in last-minute bookings as travelers regain confidence.
United Airlines said it expected about 6.6 million customers over 13 days, the most passengers the airline has ever flown during a Thanksgiving holiday. American Airlines said it will operate nearly 81,000 flights during the same period, up from 77,000 in 2024.
The FAA said it anticipates that this Thanksgiving holiday travel period will be the busiest in 15 years, with the most passengers expected on Tuesday, November 25.
"I don’t usually get such quick and last-minute bookings," said Kimberly Hillard, co-owner of Front Porch Travel in Annapolis, Maryland. "I had two last-minute bookings this week, one to Aruba and the other for Costa Rica," she said, after many of her clients put their travel plans on hold during the shutdown.
Many airline travelers plan to avoid major hubs. For instance, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, the busiest U.S. airport, will see 7.6% fewer Thanksgiving travelers.
Amtrak said it expects record train travelers this year after 1.2 million Americans booked trips with the railroad last year. Bus and train marketplace Wanderu has seen demand rise 17% year-over-year, led by bus bookings.
The effects of the shutdown may drag into Christmas. During the shutdown, bookings were trending about 0.42% lower year-over-year, according to an early analysis by Cirium.
