The most significant aspects of the Cold War stuck in our memories are the Berlin Wall, divided Germany, the West-East Bloc, the Korean War and the Vietnam War. After the Cold War ended in 1991, we spent the period of up to 2003 under an "order" where the United States achieved full control over the world economy-politics as a single pole. Then, the new period, which began in February and March of 2003, when the U.S. did not find the support it needed for the second Gulf War, especially in Europe, brought us to a multi-polar economy-political order with China and Russia strengthening their global economic, military and political capabilities.
Turkey, on the other hand, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan raising the bar for "trade and diplomacy civilization," has become a playmaker country in Eurasia, from Albania to China, from the Central Asian Turkic Republics to sub-Saharan Africa, by strengthening its ability to act in the region. The U.S. and the EU, who have suffered from a severe economic fracture during the 2008 global financial crisis, are now trying to crumple the growing capabilities of China and Russia as poles with economic and political embargo and trade wars. China and Russia are in turn reviving and re-plotting Cold War schemes against this strategic pressure carried out by the Atlantic Alliance. As the Atlantic tries to corner Russia with the Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia, Russia is making countermoves against them with the Balkans and with energy supply security.
Russian President Putin's latest Belgrade visit; the signing of 20 agreements; Putin presenting the Alexander Nevsky Order, presented to Cold War Era Soviet government officials, to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic; statements from both Putin and Erdoğan on their high expectations for the TurkStream project where Turkey is an important actor; and Putin's emphasis on President Erdoğan's visit to Moscow on Jan. 23, are all details to be noted.
Turkey's special position as a bridge between the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific, which puts the country as the center of gravity of the new global economic and political order, also means that its unique weight will also multiply. It would be highly beneficial to study the effective moves of President Erdoğan in the Syrian and Iraqi equation from this aspect.
'Deferment' likely scenario for Brexit
As the U.K.'s departure date from the EU approaches on March 29, political and social tensions in the country are rising. London Deputy Police Chief Neil Basu, a U.K. top-level police officer in charge of the fight against terrorism, warned that extreme right-wing groups may exploit the "feverish environment" over the Brexit process. While public opinion surveys indicate that 80 percent of the British people define themselves as part of a political party or movement, this figure rises to 95 percent for Brexit's supporters or opponents. Even though Brexit has such an effect on social life, it is seen as sure that Prime Minister Theresa May's 'plan B' to the British Parliament will be rejected again if the concession talks with the EU till then do not satisfy Parliament.
While it is thought that May is following the tactic of pressing the Parliament due to the time shortage, regarding the fact that a scenario where an exit is without any agreement will have the most severe consequences, the Labor Party, the Parliament and nongovernmental organizations focus on the strongest scenario or possibility that the United Kingdom's March 29 exit may be postponed. If the proposal of Yvette Cooper, a Labor party MP, is accepted with the support of some MPs from the ruling party, the government's right to determine the parliamentary agenda will be taken away from the government and they will ask to postpone Brexit to Dec. 31 with this legislative proposal.
Labor Party deputy Stella Creasy's proposal, on the other hand is with the deferment of Brexit, to give the say to a citizen's assembly consisting of 250 people representing the British people to determine the content of the Brexit agreement. A Brexit without any agreement is a nightmare scenario. U.K. business circles are worried that this scenario could reduce the economy by 10 percent, as the U.K. has a trade volume of more than 500 billion pounds ($654 billion) a year with the EU. For Turkey, which has serious exports to Britain, a negotiated separation will mean that exports can continue seamlessly over the 2020-21 period.