ISTANBUL — Turkey's statement about April 24, 1915, undoubtedly once again showed us that a new era started in Caucasian and Middle Eastern territories.
A new economic cycle starting from the Chinese border, passing through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, covering former Soviet Republics in Central Asia before reaching Europe across Turkey was introduced. Within this context, we have two main ways for trade and economic integration and thus two main hinterlands to reach Europe.
The first is, as we mentioned before, the line starting from the borders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan passing through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and the Caspian to reach Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The second is the line of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria. One of the most important gates those two lines will end up is Armenia. In this sense, the statement of the Turkish prime minister about the historical Armenian problem gains strategic importance.
By the way, let me just underline that countries like Uzbekistan are very rich in uranium reserves. Besides, uranium sources in this geography have yet to be fully revealed.
Now, the issue to be discussed is what kind of a strategy Russia will embrace against the formation of the first line and which moves it will develop for delaying and preventing the establishment of the line. Russia has two main options on that point: first is to put political and economic pressure on transition countries by using its military power, thus embracing a militaryoriented expansion strategy. The second is to conduct a new economy-oriented expansion by exporting capital to those countries.
The second option is not a strategy which the oligarchic capital controlled by Russian President Vladimir Putin will embrace.
Putin would choose the other alternative.
Namely, he will mobilize pro-Russian powers from the old times of Soviet republics, just like in Crimea and threaten those countries with his military power in order to ensure a provisional and forced union.
The most ineradicable and sustainable answer is to export capital to those countries and link them to the European market through energy and trade corridors across Turkey. Undoubtedly, Russia would automatically want to establish a line starting from Iran to pass through Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Erivan. However, Ankara has already replied to this and brought the Tbilisi-Baku line into the forefront and made many vital energy and trade agreements with northern Iraq.
Now, let us examine the European side of the two alternative economic and political integration strategies. Even though Germany objects to Russia's annexation of Crimea and explicitly criticizes it, it does not object to Russia protecting the current status quo in Caucasia, what is more, supports it in a hidden way. This, in fact, is one of the main problems of the E.U. Europe cannot recover from the crisis without overcoming this strategy. Europe should have direct access to energy sources in the Middle East as an alternative to Russia. Apart from that, Europe should gain easier access to those markets so that south European countries may be able to rapidly recover from the crisis.
For now, the only obstruction in front of this is the historical cooperation and solidarity for economic interest between Russia and Germany.
However, this padlock put on by Germany is not, in the first place, sustainable for Europe.
Inevitably, Europe needs to start discussing a new wave of expansion through Turkey.
In light of this, Turkey has been taking significant steps to resolve the Kurdish problem in the last five years. It aims to bring absolute peace to all frozen and hot conflict areas in the location.
Important problems from the 19th and 20th centuries like the Cyprus dispute, Palestine problem and Armenian problem are now standing very near to being resolved within this framework. However, quite opposite to this, powers that desire the old Middle East and Caucasia to continue the same keep the line of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran-Syria unsettled and spread the tension in those areas to the whole area. In this sense, for instance, they do not want Iran to ever open to foreign countries. This is of course a strategy that serves the military expansion of Russia and was effective throughout the 20th century.
At this point, a new Turkish-centered project of economic and political integration is on the agenda for both the Middle East and Caucasia.
Mainly Western Europe and the wider Western world have no chance but to recognize this strategy and support it. This strategy, at the same time, is one that is able to convert all frozen and hot conflict areas in Caucasia to a land of absolute peace. Unless the world backs this new path together with Turkey, it may face a huge energy and food crisis starting from that point.
Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.
You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.