The dynamics that will determine 2015 (II)

In my opinion, 2015 and the years that follow will be a period in which nation-state hierarchies and nation-states that determined economy and politics in the 20th century will change considerably. Nation-state economies will be replaced by regional unions and axis powers that will steer them. Thus, the 21st century may well be considered a century of integration and union. In this sense, the EU, which emerged as a union of nation-states and has continued down this path, will give way to a new union paradigm. Today, we see that the EU cannot overcome its current problems, and worse still, it has created new crises out of the 20th century.

The present structure and politics of the U.S. and the EU will also change significantly. We can already say that the EU will likely be at a crossroads during and after 2015. During a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg in November, Pope Francis described Europe as "somewhat elderly and haggard." He said that Europe was "slowly losing its own soul," likening the continent to a "grandmother, no longer fertile and vibrant." The pope also remarked in the same speech, "We cannot allow the Mediterranean to become a vast cemetery," referring to the deaths of thousands of migrants who drowned while trying to cross the Mediterranean. The pope was implying that Europe was contributing to poverty and desperation. The EU, while in its death throes, has transformed the Mediterranean into a cemetery for immigrants. Unless the EU can overcome its own crisis, it only unearths its potential to produce a neo-fascist approach toward immigrants and foreigners. The most recent example of this is the Germany-based political movement called Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident (PEGIDA).

PEGIDA argues that they are not against Islam, they are just against the "Islamization" of the West. For the sake of "protecting Western culture, which is under Christian-Jewish dominance," they are allegedly marching against those in their own society. They are blaming immigrant societies, who, according to them, are not socially integrated. With this in mind, they carry placards saying; "We miss our Germany" and "Stop making immigrants take advantage of our social rights." In a meeting held on Oct. 27, there were only 500 participants, whereas the number reached 17,500 in the Dec. 22 meeting. The increasing number of participants is a big concern for the 5 million immigrants living in Germany. The fast rise of PEGIDA is a bleak reminder of the Nazi period between 1924 and 1933. When we take a look at Germany's economy at that time, we see pressure in two main subjects. First, during those days, Germany was undergoing a difficult period regarding markets and carrying a heavy burden in supplying its industry. At that time, both the German government and many private companies were deeply in debt. The purchasing power of workers declined rapidly, as they were used as income transmitters for the bourgeoisie industry. The only way out for German industry was to find new markets and raw materials. To achieve this, it was necessary to adopt an aggressive approach.

These economic conditions created Nazi rule. When we look at the European economy today, we can see that it has created a crisis regarding the market and energy, just as was seen in Germany between 1924 to 1933. Furthermore, Europe, as described by the pope, is on the verge of succumbing to the East's dynamism, crippled by its ageing population and weakening dynamism. The ships departing from the Spanish coasts in the early 15th century initiated the mercantilist plunder of the West, and they established a Western hegemony that prevailed up to the end of the 20th century by attaining the capital accumulation that fueled the Industrial Revolution. This hegemony is coming to an end with high speed rail lines originating at Chinese ports since the dawn of the 21st century. China's global high-speed rail vision alone is one of the key dynamics that will determine 2015. Here, we see two basic routes: the Eurasian route and the Central Asian route. The Eurasian one reaches Europe passing through Russia and north of Kazakhstan.

This route lost its significance compared to the Central Asian one following Russia's annexation of Crimea. The Central Asian route goes to Iran though Caucasia and reaches Europe by passing through Turkey. The Central Asian route is the world's new path of trade, integration and political globalization. Here, we see two main developmental paradigms: The first is a continuous war paradigm which unveils racist and fascist actions pertaining to 20th century nation-states, by creating continuous economic and political crises (see aforementioned PEGIDA). The second is a joint and people-oriented development paradigm starting in the East. This paradigm is a new humane rising that communalizes underground and ground resources, as well as technology and the wealth it creates. It is also the most important dynamic that will determine 2015 and the whole 21st century.