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On high dollar crisis

by Cemil Ertem

Apr 15, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Cemil Ertem Apr 15, 2015 12:00 am
The fact that the dollar has hit a 10-year high is a topic worth stressing, since the continuation and perpetuity of the high dollar period will almost certainly have political consequences. First, the strong dollar is bringing down the U.S.'s competitive capacity, which in return is enlarging the country's foreign trade deficit and triggering all of its serious economic problems, including the budget deficit. This is because the U.S. closes its foreign trade deficit by issuing overvalued dollars and U.S. treasury bills, which in my opinion, is not a sustainable situation under the current global economic circumstances. As stressed by U.S. President Barack Obama during the recent Americas Summit, the U.S. will no longer pursue a foreign policy that directly interferes in the internal affairs of other countries, particularly Latin American countries. The economic implications are as follows: the dollar will gain value depending on foreign trade performance and the financial and productional strength of the national economy like other countries, rather than depending on the political and military power of the U.S. Considering this, a dollar that is continuously galloping, is not sustainable either for the U.S. or the world economy.

For instance, the strong dollar is pulling down commodity prices, harming producer countries, such as Brazil, and threatening other emerging markets where companies have debts on a dollar basis. Well, does the same strong dollar provide an advantage for eurozone countries' exports by devaluing the Euro? Unfortunately, I cannot give a positive answer to this question, since the Euro ceases to be a reserve currency in this process, a situation which means the rapid deterioration of the eurozone's financial structure. Moreover, the rapid depreciation of commodities, which gain value on a dollar basis, is also bringing producer countries to the brink of crisis.

The U.S. dollar Index (USDX), which measures the value of the dollar against six major foreign currencies, has risen by approximately 25 percent since May 2014. This situation causes developing countries to tumble out of financial markets and thus, the world is facing a new global crisis. At this point, I would suggest that the use of the dollar as a trigger of crisis might turn into an avalanche that swallows those who use it as a crisis instrument. The world is no longer the world of the 1980s or the 1990s. Developing countries, particularly Russia and China, are working on ways of making a breakthrough.

Although experts indicate that the dollar is superior to other currencies in international trade, they also argue that as a rising power, China's yuan will compete with the dollar in the long run. During a recent interview with Anadolu Agency, Peter Morici, Professor of International Business at the R.H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, said that the run-up in the dollar is independent from the long-term trends regarding its position as a reserve currency in international trade. Morici said that the U.S. economy is in a relatively strong position currently, adding, "Chinese yuan will be used more in international trade in the long run. Because, with China's economic development, yuan will be much more effective in trade." He also underlined that global trade is becoming diversified with a great number of currencies.

On the agenda, there are the topics of a new currency that will replace the dollar, new economic unions and strong clearing unions where trade will be carried out with national currencies. During his recent official visit to Iran, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed to his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani that Turkey and Iran should set the conditions of carrying out trade with national currencies and Rouhani accepted this offer. A clearing union that might be established by Turkey, Iran and Russia might be a serious response to the dollar's attack. Those who want to manipulate the world economy in line with their own interests by hiking up the dollar in an artificial way might face unexpected responses and come out losers. I would like to warn coiners and crisis triggers against this.

Within this framework, I think Obama's recent meeting with Cuban President Raul Castro is a very important, successful and symbolic move. Obama is the first U.S. President to shake hands with a Cuban leader in more than 50 years. Obama said that the U.S. will no longer interfere in the internal affairs of Latin American countries, which, in a sense, implies that the U.S. is turning back to what John F. Kennedy left behind.

After World War II, all periods in which the dollar was high were the periods where the U.S. carried out operations in Asia and Latin America. In brief, as confessed by Obama, this period is one where the U.S. interfered in the internal affairs of countries, including Turkey, carried out operations there and dominated their economies. The administration of George W. Bush and the U.S.'s invasion of Iraq was a period where the high dollar stood as a noneconomic provision. Let us reiterate that today the dollar is not a currency with an economic provision. Since Richard Nixon, the dollar corresponds to the blood of Asian people who were killed by the war industry that was established by Asian capital.

Now, the U.S.'s anti-Obama Republican neo-con bloc is going to any length to make the U.S. Federal Reserve hike interest rates. They want to take the helm of the economy by threatening countries like Turkey with the high dollar, and they are preparing an environment of conflict, triggering terror and civil wars in such countries by using intelligence agencies at their disposal.

This scenario is supported by the EU that gradually becomes weaker and loses its political will and direction. The Euro might cease to be a reserve currency that is mentioned together with the dollar, and this development might serve for global war bloc by driving up the global demand for the dollar. Central banks are rapidly disposing of their euro reserves and global euro reserves have dropped from 30 percent to around 22 percent recently. If the Republican bloc in the U.S. achieves it goal and wins the 2016 elections, a state of war might prevail in the world and in parallel with this, the German-centric EU might withdraw into its shell and it might enter a period of instability with civil wars starting from Eastern Europe. I think humanity will not let this happen once again.
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