Today, data released by the statistics offices of states, particularly of the United States, does not reflect the profundity of the current crisis. It is an oft-told story that the data obtained about the U.S. economy hardly reflects the truth; however, when you hear an objection, asking whether the data coming from the Communist Party of China is more reliable, you are not troubled with accepting what is given to you. Certainly, the facts of life are different, and most of the time, statistics, which are the core of the hypotheses of economics, do not speak about the facts of life. This is why Goethe says, "All theory, dear friend, is gray, but the golden tree of life springs ever green," in Faust. Faust, who sells his soul to the devil, thinks that he gets so much pleasure out of life that he calls on time to "stop."For me, Goethe is the most prominent economist of the 19th century, and Adam Smith, David Ricardo and John Stuart Mill could not reach his intellectual profundity. Furthermore, even Karl Marx, who voiced the most severe criticism of capitalism ever, could not criticize the system and the accompanying liberalism as profoundly as Goethe, who also brought the deepest criticism of the fact that human beings lost their human feelings and turned into individuals.
The meaning of life in Faust is to obtain a material power, which is possible with knowledge and money. Perhaps, this is why life is a golden tree that is green, in other words, real and alive. Certainly, there is hardly anything humane in Faust's world; he can buy and sell anything, even his soul. For a man who sells his soul, there is not what should be, but just what happens. He quickly gets used to what happens and takes up a position accordingly. When you do not do this, the system throws you up, in other words, it expels you.
Now, it goes against Faust's philosophy of life to pretend to have survived the great crisis of today. This is because you see what should be, instead of what happens, and take up a position in accordance with what should be. Today, if "suspicious" data coming from the U.S. misleads you, you break away from reality in the gray world of theories. Fortunately, there are still Fausts in the system, and banks and investments funds that have to act like Faust do not contend with suspicious data and gray theories. One of them is JP Morgan. It carried out a study that developed an econometric model, suggesting that the possibility of the U.S. economy's recession will reach 67 percent by the end of 2017. However, the possibility that the U.S. economy hits the wall and experiences a recession over the next three years is 92 percent. JP Morgan's study updates a well-known fact and points to the root cause of the crisis: Profit rates are rapidly falling in many sectors, particularly in traditional ones. As the financialization, which is created by means of central banks to make up for this fall, accelerates the economic cycle, this data seems "suspiciously good."
JP Morgan does what is supposed to do from a typical Faust and tells the truth. However, central banks and their desperate ideologues that are stuck in the grayness of theories are so ready to sell their souls to the devil, but they fail even to do this. Well, what political consequences might this naked Faustian fact have, or can they explain our current experiences to some extent? Certainly, it can. First, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to avoid getting lost in the grayness of theories and accept the truth. Also, it should not repeat the mistake that former U.S. President Bill Clinton and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made in 1995, and it should avoid dragging the U.S. and world economy into a high interest rate cycle by overvaluing the dollar. This has a political meaning as follows: The U.S. will strive to close its foreign trade and investment-saving deficits through the rationality of exports and capital exports, instead of through seigniorage domination. This means the overvalued dollar will not continue in the medium term, as quests for low interest rates will inevitably continue. As a result of this, the U.S. will start abandoning its role as the policeman of the world and establish new balance bases in the strategic areas of the world.
The U.S. tries to achieve such a state of balance through China and Japan in the Pacific region. However, it has a tough job, as China and Japan no longer accept the paradigm that came after World War II and the U.S.'s impositions. Also, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe adopts a similar economic perspective to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Nowadays, Japan is taking steps to amend its constitution, which confines it even in strategic areas such as defense. This is why The Economist has come up with concepts such as "Abenomics" and "Erdoğanomics."
With the objective of creating a new state of balance, the U.S. will strive to control Russia, Iran and Turkey as it does in the Pacific region. Sometimes, it will be engaged in an implicit alliance with these countries, and sometimes it will clash with them. This case leads to two major consequences: For the U.S., Turkey is as significant as Russia in terms of cooperation and competition. We might face very different approaches here, however, they will not lead to a crisis between the U.S. and Turkey, quite the contrary, they will pave the way for both dominant countries to evaluate the region in a better way.
The U.S. insists on not recognizing the People's Protection Units (YPG) as a terrorist organization. The failure to see the YPG as a branch of the PKK terrorist organization is a weakness that might have dangerous consequences, like the failure to see the DAESH threat. It is a systemic problem to justify a terrorist organization just because it fights DAESH.
We wonder whether the U.S. will regard Hezbollah as a group that must be supported as it fights DAESH and whether it will provide arms aid for Hezbollah. I advise Israel to ask these questions, the answers of which we ponder, to the U.S. Department of State. The second consequence is that Turkey will act as a sovereign state for the sake of its welfare, security and integrity. Indeed, not only Turkey, but also all developing countries, from South Korea to Mexico, are going beyond the paradigm that was outlined by the U.S. after World War II. We have to accept this reality, as it is a new and needed inclination that strengthens the system and re-lays its foundations in a more robust way, rather than undermining the system.
Contrary to what some claim by relying on these causes, it is impossible to claim that the happenings in the Middle East will lead to an interstate war. Dynamism in the region will continue to escalate until stability is achieved. The EU is on the verge of accepting Turkey's proposal for establishing a safe zone in Syria. So, the U.S. must reconsider its specific policies on the region.