The twin attacks that struck Iran after the blockade of Qatar, and Daesh claiming responsibility, reveal the true colors of the matter at large. Iran, which tried to be included in the system during former U.S. President Barack Obama's period, is being pushed out of the system once again. The blockade of Qatar and Wednesday's attacks on Iran indicate that the war on sharing, which is being run through terrorist organizations in the region, has reached a new phase that attracts states to the battlefield.
In other words, states think that they have reached the desired positions through proxy wars as far as possible, and that they will no longer be able to dissolve the states that they could not dissolve through terrorist organizations.
Moreover, as far as the area of the use of terrorist organizations such as Daesh, the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), the PKK and the People's Protection Units (YPG) through which they maintain proxy wars, expands, it is becoming inevitable for them to be unearthed and defeated by powerful states.
Certainly, this war on sharing is based on seizing and controlling two fundamental economic dynamics. The first is the control and rearrangement of energy fields, while the second is the control of trade markets and routes in the region. Already, the operation against Qatar provides some concrete clues on this point.
The sharing of the South Pars Gas Field resources between Qatar and Iran, and the fact that the economic fruits of this sharing will change the energy equation in the region, has triggered this great operation against Qatar and Iran.
In fact, the perpetrators of this operation know that they have lost control of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and do not want to make the same mistake in Gulf resources. The conveyance of Caspian resources to Europe via Turkey was a historical step and the combination of Qatari, Iranian and Russian natural gas resources and the commercialization of these resources with the diversification of SGC would not change energy balances alone. This situation does not offer any options other than the SGC for the natural gas resources that Israel wants to control in the eastern Mediterranean.
Those who carry out these operations and use terrorist organizations such as FETÖ, Daesh, the PKK and the YPG are not troubled by this alone. China's "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) project is depriving the old sovereign powers of the new world trade order.
Let us look at the three major routes connecting Asia Pacific to the European market: The Northern Corridor passes through the Russian mainland along the Trans-Siberian line and reaches Europe passing through Kazakhstan and Belarus. As is known, Russia is in a customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus and this line is the main axis of Russia's Eurasia Union project.
The Middle Corridor reaches Europe by passing though China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea (by ferry), Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Southern Corridor starts from Kazakhstan and passes through the Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey line. All these trade corridors are beginning to operate as part of a new trade order that is not possible to realize only with railways, land and maritime traffic networks built on these routes, as well as energy communication.
A new trade order can be established only if all countries along these lines switch to an outward-oriented economy and adopt new democratic politics that will allow them to determine their own fate. This is also the only way of achieving peace in these regions without turning cold conflict areas to hot conflict areas.
However, there are efforts to prevent this at the moment by blockading all new trade axes and energy routes spanning the continent from the Pacific to Eastern Europe and lay the foundations of new civil wars and border clashes. Let us warn those who try to do so. If you are planning such a scenario, just take it out of your mind, as we do not live in the 20th century and the world has multiple détentes now. This war scenario will harm you the most and will destroy the system. Turkey has just done this in this process. It developed a model in which the region will lay claim to its own resources and wealth, and in which countries in the region will be the only owner of this wealth. Turkey also made efforts to set this model as an example for the whole region.
Indeed, the Gulf states must look to Turkey and assess their investments through Turkey, as making these investments in the U.S. and any Western country is risky. Saudi Arabia forgets how it was accused after the 9/11 attacks and that the U.S. made preparations to seize the Saudi capital. The Gulf states are both economically and politically investing in the old, namely in the previous century. They will soon realize how wrong they are.
Well, what will happen from now on? We can say that the arrow has already left the bow, as the organizations controlled by the perpetrators of these operations have run out of steam. In addition, their connections have been unearthed and they have fallen from grace in the eyes of the public. As such, they have come to directly target states. However, the world is not the world of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Those who want and declare a total war will suffer from it the most.
Economic operations and sanctions that go as far as an embargo may come into question. I do not think it will work much in the middle and long term. This is because even Qatar's investments and financial integration around the world are so intense that the economy of those who impose an embargo on the country will suffer first.
I think investments and the trade cycle in the region, including Turkey's, will not halt and that investments will continue to increase in countries and regions located along the New Silk Road line. The relevant countries are aware of this operation, which seems to be taking place in the Middle East and the Gulf, but also includes China's OBOR project, and they will have a response to this.