Unfortunately, manipulative operations and economic hitmen have spread negative predictions about Turkey's economy. What happened last Friday showed us that perception manipulation aimed at souring Turkey's economic outlook seems bound to accelerate until the June 24 elections. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) interest rate hike and the subsequent "simplification" step brought relative relief to the exchange rate. However, these steps were not significant for certain circles, who responded by wanting upward movement in exchange and interest rates until the elections. On Friday afternoon, first the Fitch credit rating agency placed Turkish banks' ratings on watch negative, then Moody's, another rating agency, declared that it would review Turkey's rating for a downgrade.
Fitch and others know very well that a lot of banks in Europe keep their consolidated balance sheets out of the red thanks to their partnerships and operations in Turkey. This is especially reflected in the Italian and Spanish banks operating in Turkey. Currently, the European banking system, including that of Germany, is about to die. They understand they need to raise their investments and operations in Turkey after the elections in Italy, Spain, Portugal and even France have been done for them. Do not worry, Germany is also on the line. At the same time, the areas of operation in the world are continuously shrinking for London and New York's financial capitals.
Now Moody's is talking about the economic uncertainty of Turkey. However, we need to talk about the uncertain monetary and fiscal policies in the countries producing the two main reserve currencies - the dollar and the euro. Contrary to what's being said, if President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) win, the economic uncertainty in Turkey will disappear; however, economic disquiet will continue to haunt the U.S. and the eurozone. And though there is no ambiguity in Turkey's monetary or fiscal policies, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. and the EU continues to increase, especially regarding the following issues.
When the EU and other countries finally start responding to the increasing protectionism of the U.S., Washington will be unable to easily carry out dollar-based consolidation operations to finance itself. On the other hand, the crisis in Italy and the emerging crises in Spain and Portugal show us that the EU is coming to the end of its German-centric-valued euro policy. If Germany is forced to support the financial systems of Italy and Spain, just like it did with Greece, German banks will start to fail. As a matter of fact, the situation which the bank, mentioned with Germany, has fallen into is a concrete indication of this trajectory.
For now, the U.K. is handling the situation with global funds accumulated in London. Companies involved in the operations monitoring what is produced in the U.K. and what is exported from the country in all industrial areas, with the automotive sector taking the lead, are seeing fewer losses. Soon they will have to put an end to production and export-based U.K. operations. There has already been a global shift toward the Asia-Pacific region for technology-intensive industries. Europe, the U.K. and the U.S. are no longer able to benefit from the technology sector as they did before. So, it is not surprising that U.S. President Donald Trump says he only wants to see American-made cars on U.S. streets.
That means that the U.S. is no longer able to compete in technology-intensive consumer goods sectors. In fact, there are 150 million lines of software in an average car today. Soon, when electric cars dominate the market, Europe will also face the same situation. The U.K. is not there, yet.
As a result, the 2008 crisis began with the collapse of the housing market in the U.S. and became global by rapidly embracing capital markets. Now, Western economies are faced with a new crisis effecting real areas of the economy, including technology.
In the face of this, familiar scenarios are coming into play. Western economies have lost their technology-based income, are unable to maintain the petro-dollar cycle as before and have declining industrial profits. As a result, they want to compensate for the falling general profit rates by conducting very profitable financial operations at the expense of crises in developing countries. Basically, they want to export their own crises to developing countries.
First in Brazil and then Argentina, the operations in Latin America went deep, interwoven with political liquidation processes. They partially got what they wanted here. In these countries, governments that had tried to get out of the dominant global paradigm were overthrown and newcomers basically returned to the economic policies of junta periods.
Currently, their primary goal in Turkey is to prevent Erdoğan from winning the elections and even if he wins, make him less powerful. Clearly, they are conducting all kinds of operations to this end. However, a government not ruled by Erdoğan will lead to a crisis that would spread well beyond Turkey's borders. This would mean the deepening of the crises in the EU and the U.K., while the EU and Western world, especially Germany, would face a bitter refugee problem.
Turkey, along with its public and private sectors and households, is one of the least indebted countries in the world and one of the safest countries in terms of debt management. The figures and rates are open to the public. Anyone can easily access and compare them. So, unreasonable discourse insinuating an external debt crisis in Turkey will harm the naysayers the most. As stated above, the West is on the brink of a new crisis. Global capital only has a few safe havens, one being Turkey, for investments and hot money. Therefore, the best option is a strong Erdoğan-run government for the stability of not only Turkey, but also the global economy.