Coalition dilemma: How to say no, without saying no

Our colleagues in the media had very high expectations about the coalition meeting between the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) Chairman and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu that ended with an anti-climax after the two politicians decided to have another meeting on Thursday or Friday. There is a strong possibility that the final meeting will be on Friday.

People were saying that the meeting on Monday evening would be make or break for a possible coalition between the two parties, but it seems they were wrong.

It seems there is a clear dilemma on both sides.

Davutoğlu is aware that the party rank and file is against a coalition with the CHP. Speculation that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not want a coalition and prefers early elections is partially wrong. It is true that the president is not too enthusiastic about a coalition between the AK Party and the CHP and feels early elections should be a strong option, but he is not pressuring Davutoğlu on the issue at all. On the contrary, Davutoğlu sees clearly that the party base and most of its executives are against a coalition with the CHP and would prefer a coalition with the ultra-conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) if a coalition becomes a necessity. However, they strongly prefer early elections.A survey by the MAK Consultancy Company among those who voted for the AK Party in the June 7 elections, shows that 60 percent want early elections, 22 percent favor an AK Party-MHP coalition and only 12 percent support a coalition with the CHP. The survey also shows that if elections were held today the AK Party would get between 42.8 percent to 44.7 percent of the votes.

So, Davutoğlu has to lend a tentative ear to those who oppose a coalition with the CHP, the people who say the party should try early elections and if the parliamentary picture does not change in the new polls then they can establish a coalition government with the CHP or more probably with the MHP.

The CHP on the other hand is more eager for a coalition with the AK Party, as according to the MAK survey, 54 percent of those who voted for the party want a coalition with the AK Party and only 6 percent want early elections. However, in the party rank and file the enmity towards the AK Party, which stems from a blood feud that dates back 12 years, is gross. They simply want to dismantle the AK Party's actions of the past 12 years in many areas that the AK Party cannot stomach. Above all they have to force themselves to accept the Erdoğan reality, which seems to be an impossible mission.

Both parties are also aware that the growing terrorist menace in Turkey from the PKK, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) coupled with the demands of economic stability by big business is forcing them to come together in a grand coalition. This makes them ponder on whether they should set up a coalition government that would take Turkey to the polls in a year or two.

Yet both know that dealing with terrorism will necessitate the use of state power and this means extraordinary security measures, thus the curbing of rights and freedoms that may cost both parties valuable votes.

So at the moment Davutoğlu is inclined to try to push for early elections, while Kılıçdaroğlu wants a coalition but sees the danger of his votes dramatically shrinking. So they are both inclined to say no to a coalition, without actually saying no, as not to draw public anger.