The AK Party enters the local elections as the party that took a significant step toward solving a high-risk problem
Turkey is moving toward its most critical election in recent history. Although it is a local election, it has the atmosphere of a true general election due to the upcoming presidential election and attempts to overthrow the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). In the past 12 years, the AK Party has won every election it has run in. Now the party is preparing for three elections: local, presidential and general. The winner of the local election on March 30 will most likely win the other two elections, making the local election a crucial factor in determining the future direction of Turkey.
For this reason, both old and new opposition parties are putting up a strong fight in the hopes that the AK Party will fail. The AK Party, on the other hand, trusts that its investments over the past 12 years in infrastructure, financial stability and political reform -including willingness to solve 100-year-old problems such as the resolution process with the Kurdswill secure its success at the poles. It was considered a milestone in Turkish history when the PKK and the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) entered into dialogue and officials met with PKK leader AbdullahÖcalan.
With that, a war of 30 years that saw 50,000 lives lost was brought to an end. Be that as it may, political actors of the old Turkey are not standing idly by as the AK Party makes headway. What began as flirtatious "confidential" meetings became a new alliance between the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), and the Istanbul Capital, the Ergenekon circle and the Gülen movement. Their first aim was to see an AK Party without Erdogan. The Gülen movement's parallel structure within the police force and the judiciary was the main force in attempts to overthrow the AK Party regime.
When looking at the local elections from this vantage point, we see three political blocs. In the first bloc is the AK Party, which is supported by the middle and lower classes that make up the majority of Turkish society. Different Islamic communities, leftist democrats and some liberals also support the AK Party.
In the second bloc are forces that form public or covert alliances to pull down the AK Party, such as the CHP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the central media and the Gülen Movement. This bloc receives most of its support in the western and coastal areas of the country. Just how much of an impact the Gülen Movement has will be revealed in the upcoming elections. This bloc aims to cause dispiritedness by taking one of the provinces, such as Istanbul or Ankara, that have been long-time AK Party strongholds. In line with this strategy, the Gülen Movement is supporting CHP in Istanbul and Ankara, and MHP in Anatolia.In the third bloc is the Kurdish political movement, PKK-BDP and HDP.
The local elections will be a turning point for the PKK as it takes a new approach of using politics to solve problems. The AK Party will compete with the second bloc in the country's west and with the third bloc in the east. Moreover, these elections will be the last for those groups who represent the 'old Turkey', and the first for the 'new Turkey'.
As for the election outcomes, the AK Party is expected to receive 49 percent in the general election and 38 percent in local elections.
Although CHP has entered the race with new names, the party is yet to clinch enough of the vote in a deeply diverse Turkish population.
In central Anatolia and the Kurdish regions, CHP is almost nonexistent, forcing the party to hold tightly onto Istanbul or Ankara if it is to gain an upper hand. With that, the outcome looks better for MHP than CHP.
To put it simply: The AK Party is the favorite nationwide, while BDP is the favorite in the country's east. There is, of course, still over a month left until the elections, but the vote will be determined less by the opposition parties and more by the struggle between the AK Party as a representative of civil politics, and the parallel structure that represents bureaucracy.
A tougher election period is, therefore, a strong possibility.
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