The public wants political and economic stability and the reconciliation process to continue after seeing the incidents that resulted from the political uncertainty in the aftermath of the June 7 elections
Social mobilization is gaining speed as Turkey re-enters the election process. Society no longer wants a life stuck between tension, terror and cease-fires, but yearns for law, justice, stability and peace. It seems society will assume not a passive, but a more active role in the achievement of this. Thursday's peace rally in Ankara, which was attended by thousands, along with an anti-terrorism meeting to be held in Istanbul, is the first sign of this. What kind of implication this mobilization will have on the Nov. 1 snap general elections is an issue of concern. Yet another curiosity and concern is that the country is heading toward elections in an environment in which terror attacks continue to claim lives. We are entering a critical election process in this regard. However, what makes this election critical is not only the continuity of terror, but also the country's fate, which is targeted by terrorism. In a sense, we will either progress on our way through politics and will overcome the multifaceted siege or the oft-told coup dynamics will be put in place and the country will be dragged into chaos. In other words, we are heading toward an election that is of particular concern to both the country and political parties' fates.
Well, what are the states of the parties that will take part in the elections? The pulse on the street indicates that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) will increase their votes while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Peoples' Democratic Party (MHP) will lose votes. This is not surprising at all. The post-election experiences, particularly the MHP and HDP's roles that blocked politics, have brought society to a point of making a new decision. After all, the political picture changed with the increase in votes for these two parties. The reconciliation process was the reason why these votes largely shifted away from the AK Party to these two parties. A total of 3 percent of nationalist voters turned to the MHP and 6 percent turned to the HDP. Certainly, this inclination was partly because of external factors such as Kobani, and internal factors such as the hostility that is nurtured toward President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan through media outlets affiliated with the Gülen Movement's "parallel structure" and the Doğan Media Group. Undoubtedly, however, the most determinative factor was the belief in the continuation of the reconciliation process and the resolution of problems through politics. This belief was shaken after June 7 and things turned the other way around. This was because the PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains came into play, reinitiated terror and immobilized politics and the HDP, which had 6 million voters. As for the MHP, it used the 3 percent increase in its votes, which it achieved through a totally different plan, to block politics, instead of paving the way for it. This might lead to resentment from the voters who changed the picture and push them toward more center parties in the AK Party and the CHP. The latter seems to be a stronger possibility. Furthermore, it is almost certain that the 1 percent of the vote that is thought to have shifted away from the CHP to the HDP will be regained.
Considering all this, the Nov. 1 elections will also be one that will determine the fate of these political parties. Votes will be accumulated by the AK Party and the CHP and the way for a two-party system, in which they will be alternatives to one another, will be opened. Another development that consolidates this argument is that some small parties are withdrawing from the field. For instance, the Free Cause Party (HÜDA PAR), which is mostly active in the southeast, will not run in the upcoming elections. It received nearly 4 percent of the vote in cities such as Batman, Diyarbakır and Bingöl. Although this vote rate does not change the results, it will have an impact in some cities.Society wants politics to acquire credibility, ensure stability and peace and reinstate the reconciliation process despite all criticism. The legal struggle against terror will pave the way for reaching this point and the Nov. 1 elections in a healthy manner.