Parties have been seeking to form the new government since June 7 and now coalition talks have entered a critical phase. Whether the talks conducted between the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and Republican People's Party (CHP) lead to a coalition partnership will be determined today, but the possibility of such a partnership already seems weak. Because of the fact that this coalition may create the grand reunification and alleviate the polarization in Turkish society, a lot of people, including myself, have supported this possibility. But it should be clearly seen that both parties' bases are reluctant to participate in such a partnership, the AK Party and the CHP's style of politics are radically different and they have many disagreements over various subjects. In addition, while the AK Party constantly emphasizes that there will be no partnership if parties cannot agree on even a single subject, the CHP has employed a critical tone for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party especially after the PKK escalated its attacks.
If an AK Party-CHP partnership does not happen, does it mean that all coalition possibilities are exhausted? I think it does not. At this point, the Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) attitude could be a game changer. Up until now, the MHP has acted as if it does not ever want to form a coalition with the AK Party, but very much likes to be in the opposition. The MHP so far wanted to strengthen its image of standing against the parties siding with terror, essentially targeting the CHP.
But the MHP has formed its politics entirely on the possibility of AK Party-CHP coalition talks failing. Thus, if the AK Party and CHP cannot form a partnership, the MHP may step up and open its doors to the AK Party. So the possibility of an AK Party-MHP coalition government is still on the table just as early elections are. But this possibility is not very pleasant. The AK Party should be extra careful in considering this partnership because such a partnership can seriously undermine the reconciliation process - the project that the AK Party has so far insistently pursued despite all the risks and difficulties - and make the votes given by Kurds to the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) permanent. This partnership can destroy all the progress that has been made in the reconciliation process. And the terrifying circumstances in the Middle East should also not be forgotten. There are Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) elements just outside Turkey's doors and a government structure that isolates Kurds will further lead Kurds living in Turkey to draw closer to the Kurdish political entities in northern Iraq and Syria.
On the other hand, a possible early election bears certain risks for the AK Party as well. Hence, as the director of the KONDA survey company, Bekir Ağırdır has pointed out, their latest surveys reveal that the HDP's votes are still above the threshold and it is highly likely that the AK Party may not acquire a majority in Parliament in early elections. So it can be said that Turkish politics is in crisis these days. Considering all of this, the wiser choice seems to be to convince the bases, despite all the difficulties, for a possible AK Party-CHP partnership that is built upon precise mutual principles.