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What will happen next in Germany?

by Ozan Ceyhun

Nov 23, 2017 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Ozan Ceyhun Nov 23, 2017 12:00 am

Germany has so far failed to restore political stability after it was disrupted in the aftermath of the Sept. 24 elections. The situation is alarming for both Germany and the European Union.

It is currently under caretaker rule, thus, immediately needs a government that will receive a vote of confidence from every quarter. This will also be crucial for Turkey-Germany relations.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Left Party, a proponent of the outlawed PKK, constitute a great impediment to Germany's stability. Moreover, in case of an early election, the AfD and the Left were likely to increase their vote share to claim more seats in Bundestag.

This is a grave threat to German democracy and EU values. Despite their completely different ideologies, the two parties converge on their dissidence to the current order in Germany, euroscepticism, and anti-Turkish sentiments. Coupled with their anti-Muslim stance, both parties pose a great threat to Germany's social peace.

Benefiting from the major political parties' failure to form a new government, the far-left, and far-right groups have already gained grounds in the Bundestag.

The latest scandal saw Left Party Deputy Sevim Dağdelen praise the PKK-affiliated Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG) and exhibit a flag of the group in the parliament.

The pro-terror deputy's action faced criticism from other deputies, as she was rightfully warned by Speaker Wolfgang Schaeuble.

Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel also defended the bans on the PKK and other terrorist groups in Germany, emphasizing that the PKK engages in blackmailing, drug and human trafficking in the country. I would like to take this opportunity to thank him for issuing the warning and explaining the situation to the German public.

However, Germany once more found itself amid scandals when the city of Giessen in Germany's Hesse state started discussing an Armenian monument, clearly to provoke anti-Turkish sentiments.

Another scandal was prevented at the last moment by Social Democrat and Green Party deputies in the Hessian state parliament in Wiesbaden after the AfD suggested the city cut its sister city relations with Istanbul's Fatih. They have marked a long successful relationship over the years, including dialogues between schools in the two districts.

Unfortunately, however, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) offered to examine the AfD-proposal but did not offer support.

Eventually, Social Democrat and Green Party members stepped in and rejected it. I would like to thank the members who took firm steps to foil this ill-advised plan.

In an earlier piece, I discussed why the Jamaica coalition could not be formed as yet. I have always believed that such a coalition would not last long even if it could be formed. Ruling Germany under multi-partied coalitions is almost impossible.

Meanwhile, the "minority government" model, suggested after the failure to form a Jamaica coalition, would also be ill suited for Germany, which is influential in the EU and the world.

Germany is now left with two options. The first is to return to the polls. However, estimates have suggested that the results of an early election will not be much different from the one on Sept. 24. Even worse, uncertainty can see small political parties punching way above their weight and a decline for the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). In addition, it would spell disaster for Germany if far-right and far-left groups increased their vote share, a prospect that is also disturbing for the EU.

The second option, and possibly the only logical way ahead for Germany, is a grand coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD.

Though the SPD currently does not agree with this option, a possible return to polls will see its vote share drop below 20 percent.

Despite spending 24 million euros in campaigning for the Sept. 24 elections, the SPD lost 1.7 million votes, which means a financial loss corresponding to 1.2 million euros. In other words, a return to the polls would mean disaster for the SPD.

Germany immediately needs political stability, and only a grand coalition can help achieve it. Thus, discussions within the SPD that oppose the coalition must come to end. It is expected to make the right decision and show that it places the country before the party.

A grand coalition will be the most logical step for Germany, the EU and towards a better Turkey-Germany relationship. We also welcome a coalition that will ensure stability.

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