Will there be early elections in Germany?

Published 08.08.2019 23:40
Updated 09.08.2019 00:16

Germany, the most powerful and important member of the European Union, can also be identified as the country that "carries" and supports the European Union from an economic perspective. Due to this rather special status, Germany carries critical importance for the European Union. Any changes in the political stability and economic dynamics in Germany, therefore, affect the European Union immediately.

Germany, which we know to be the sturdiest country among EU member states became a carefully monitored state after the defeat of the federal government's partner the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) in the latest elections. Since then, the SPD has never recovered from the defeat in the federal elections. And it is getting worse. This raises concerns regarding the lifespan of the federal government formed by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)/ Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and the SPD.

Finally, according to the results of a public opinion poll on Aug. 5, 2019 by research company INSA the CDU/CSU have a vote ratio of 27.5%, the SPD 11.5%, the Greens 23.5%, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) 9%, the Left Party 9%, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) 15% and the remaining others have a total of 4.5%. The results of this survey show similar outcomes when compared to other public opinion polls made within the last seven days.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU preserves its vote ratio of 27% to 30%. The Greens have a successful graph ranging between 23% to 26%. The AfD, although having an unstable vote ratio between 11% to 15%, is still not falling below the 10% range.

However, the SPD is probably having the worst period of its history. Its vote ratio is between 11% and 14%. In fact, within the last months, it has an average of 12%. In addition to losing its place as the second party in Germany to the Greens, it also became the fourth party following the AfD, which is in the spot of the third party.

This means a "political apocalypse" for hundreds of thousands of SPD members. The number of SPD members who believe that the reason for this situation is their status of being a federal coalition government partner and voicing their demands to immediately shift into the opposition is increasing.

The coalition partners that are form the federal government, namely the CDU and CSU, are watching this situation with worries.

In fact within the CDU, staff members are making plans over the conditions of a potential federal coalition government that might be formed with the Greens within the close future.

The Greens, who managed to wipe clean the image of the Cem Özdemir period that was not proposing any policies other than "enmity toward Turkey" and presented itself as a party that can hold responsibility regarding Germany's internal affairs in a believable fashion, while preparing for a potential CDU/CSU partnership, are also making inquiries about other potential government models that could be formed by a Green chancellor. For example, following a potential early election, if the Greens, SPD and Left Party can have enough of a majority to form the federal coalition, the Greens seem to be eager to try such an alternative.

A CDU/CSU-Greens coalition might be the best option for the stability of Germany. A coalition of the CDU/CSU with a powerful Greens party instead of a weak SPD might be much more beneficial for the solution of Germany's problems.

Right now media in Germany is looking for an answer to the question, "How much more can the SPD endure?"

In fact, it seems that the answer to this question is going to be given in the upcoming three provincial parliament elections that will be held this year.

There are provincial assembly elections on Sept. 1, in the Brandenburg and Sachsen provinces and on Oct. 27, in Thüringen province. According to the latest public opinion polls, the SPD and AfD are competing in equal standing with a 19% vote ratio in Brandenburg. In this province, the CDU has a vote ration of 18%. In Sachsen province; however, while the CDU and AfD are competing with vote ratios around 26%, the SPD is in a very bad situation with 9%. The situation is not so much different in Thüringen either. In this province, while the AfD is at the helm with 24%, the CDU's vote ratio is 21% and the SPD is literally in a "miserable" situation with 8%. It is pretty clear as of now that in the election results of these three provinces, the SPD is going to be the loser. Following these election results, at the SPD congress that will be held on Dec. 6 and Dec. 8, the chances for the those voices that are saying "let's put an end to the coalition" to win are rather high.

If this happens, Germany will begin the year 2020 by searching for answers to the following two questions: "Should we have an early election?" or "Should the CDU/CSU and Greens form a new federal coalition government until the general elections in 2021?" We will be watching.

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