The U.S.'s İncirlik Air Base in Turkey has once again become a topic of confrontation for media and think tanks in the two countries. Whenever Turkey acts upon its own strategic wishes, some voices in Washington bring up İncirlik or Turkey's NATO membership as a tactic and lever against Ankara's position. A new report published by Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracy last month documented alternatives to İncirlik Air Base, a crucial American military asset since the 1950s and also a main operation hub against DAESH in Syria and Iraq.The FDD, a neo-conservative think tank, that has significant close ties with the pro-Israeli lobby, quite candidly said in the conclusion section of the report that moving sensitive assets from Turkey "beyond prudent contingency planning, would send an important message to Ankara that the U.S. is not eager to redeploy as long as both Turkey's domestic and foreign policies are incongruent with the American administration." Simply put, this is the main reason the FDD and other supporters of İncirlik's relocation would like to see that realized more for political bickering rather than strategic vision.
I understand the concerns the FDD has and their frustration in the Erdoğan administration's handling of past Turkish-Israeli affairs along with some interactions with Hamas and Iran. What I don't understand is their blunt irresponsibility when it comes to bilateral strategic alliance.
Turkey's alliance with the U.S. has been critically intertwined with its membership in NATO. The U.S. military has had, and still has, a substantial presence in the country since the Cold War. Along with the Kürecik Radar Base, the U.S., currently, has access to or is contributing to NATO's Rapid Deployment Units, Allied Land Command, joint-military training and cooperation initiatives, Malatya, Batman, Diyarbakır air bases and ports in Turkey.
İncirlik Air Base, in this larger picture, has central importance, and though one might say that it is replaceable, there are questions over other assets and whether they could also be moved and would work with one another as efficiently as they do in Turkey. Relocating İncirlik out of Turkey would provoke new questions about these assets and their positioning, too. It would be like opening Pandora's Box for bilateral Turkish-American military-to-military relations, which could create serious fallout for NATO.
Ross Wilson, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2005-2008, told me last month that proposals by some in the U.S. media to relocate İncirlik Air Base to northern Iraq or somewhere else is "silly" and "preposterous." He said that the failed coup in Turkey did not change the importance of the base. "The focus of our policy makers should be maintaining that access and ensuring that İncirlik is a positive factor for U.S.-Turkish cooperation, not the problem," he said.
Others, such as retired ambassador James Jeffrey, questioned the efficiency of the FDD's alternatives for İncirlik. The report suggests that bases in Cyprus, northern Iraq and Jordan would serve American needs in the region, at least in the short term. The report itself underlined the shortcomings of the Cypriot airbase and Iraqi bases. Jeffrey examined whether there was enough airspace for training and operations in Jordan during the panel the FDD hosted this week on Capitol Hill.
Senior Turkish officials told me this week that they don't take this kind of report seriously, and their American counterparts didn't even hint about the existence of a contingency plan for an alternative to İncirlik. The Pentagon should have such a plan since its main task is to prepare for emergencies.
The authors of the report indulge themselves with short-term solutions, but Turkish-American relations are not temporary. Turkish officials are adamant about working with their American counterparts, and the next president of the United States will have to treat this issue with great care, rather than daily political calculus.
I claim that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is the most pro-American force in Turkish politics, especially if you compare it with the possible alternatives. While Turkish citizens would be very happy to see Americans leaving Turkey for good, Turkish officials consider this a strategic failure. Bringing up such bluffs for political motivations would only serve to feed the increasing anti-Americanism in Turkey, while undermining the government's hand and harm relations further.
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