The one thing markets hate is uncertainty. Even bad news is not necessarily bad, unless it is really "news." This is why the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do virtually nothing at its "Federal Open Market Committee" meeting this week. No rate hikes or extreme language will come out of its two-day meeting ending on Wednesday. Throwing a monkey wrench into the U.S. presidential election, six days before it occurs, would be met with universal criticism. That is why the FBI's disclosure late Friday that it was looking into new emails that may prove former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton mishandled classified information was such a surprise. Markets were caught off guard. All major U.S. equity indexes immediately turned negative and the U.S. dollar index also lost ground. So what does this mean for markets and your money?
FBI Director James Comey dropped a bombshell by not specifying exactly what the new investigation would entail. However, immediately after the announcement, many news outlets quoted numerous anonymous sources leaking information from the FBI, that the emails dealt with a computer in the possession of an aide to Clinton. If the golden rule of investing is diversification, then the silver rule is "keep a long-term perspective." Unfortunately for many emerging market investors, both rules are only good in theory. If you do business in any non-dollar denominated currency, these two rules are difficult to abide by. The next four years of market movements may very well be decided by the outcome of this announcement and there is only a week left before the other shoe potentially drops. So what is next?
The FBI has already been granted a warrant and will probably very quickly begin investigating the files on Clinton aide, Huma Abedin's computer. It is not really important what they find, but when they find it. Should the FBI make another announcement regarding their investigation, markets will react. The odds that they signal an "all-clear" in the next six days is practically zero. No investigation can be completed that quickly. However, it is possible that they find classified information on the said computer in the next few days. That is also not a big deal. If they announce as much before the election, then all bets are off.
Should the FBI come out with a "there's conclusive evidence that classified information was mishandled and an investigation will proceed," then this might do some damage to Clinton. More likely, however, is that whatever the FBI finds and indeed announces, it is too little too late. There is a reason why they call it an October surprise. As the U.S. presidential election takes place the first Tuesday in November after the first Monday, the earliest an election can occur is Nov. 2. News takes at least three-to-four days to get around and be processed by the electorate. This means, that if the FBI makes no new announcements by Friday, Clinton is in the clear and is the new leader "of the free-world." If the FBI does however make an announcement, Trump may benefit from disenfranchised democrats staying at home and energized Republicans (if that is even possible in this cycle) getting out and voting for Trump.
The undecided vote, the percentage of which makes their vote key to deciding the winner of the election, may also be swayed. The U.S. constitution specifies the president can only be impeached for "high crimes and misdemeanors." Can a president-elect be impeached? Probably not. Can a president be impeached for crimes committed before becoming president? Probably. Does the mishandling of classified information constitute a "high crime?" Probably not. In this case, even if Clinton did knowingly mishandle classified information, she is still okay. However, reality and perception, especially in the midst of an election, are two completely different things.
The election will take place next Tuesday and I will share my predictions on Election Day, however, here is my financial advice, now, for investors. If you have debt, hold currencies proportional to the level of your debt in each currency. If you are debt free, stay away from volatile currencies that act as proxies to the election, such as the Mexican peso. Deleverage where possible. Get out of equities that would be hurt by a Democratic Senate and House. This includes merger candidate equities and those that enjoy monopolistic market making abilities.
Former President Bill Clinton squandered his first two years in office with a friendly Congress and paid for it for the remainder of this presidency, President Hillary Clinton will not repeat this mistake. Invest accordingly.
to read our informative text prepared pursuant to the Law on the Protection of Personal Data No. 6698 and to get information about the
used on our website in accordance with the relevant legislation.
6698 sayılı Kişisel Verilerin Korunması Kanunu uyarınca hazırlanmış aydınlatma metnimizi okumak ve sitemizde ilgili mevzuata uygun olarak kullanılan
ilgili bilgi almak için lütfen