The presidential election has largely set the tone for the 2015 parliamentary election, but the transition period in between should be appraised effectively
The Aug. 10 presidential election marked the beginning of the third and final part of the 2014 to 2015 election trilogy. The pains of 2014, which has arguably been the longest year of the new millennium, will not be completely alleviated until after the 2015 general parliamentary election.
What we, therefore, experience today represents the political beginning of 2015. Over the past couple of weeks, when all key government offices underwent some changes, the most surprising development in Turkey was the opposition's failure to follow süit. Interestingly enough, new faces in the opposition's ranks could have positioned their parties strongly ahead of another long year. The new Turkey's genuine opposition will not emerge until we see the last of the old Turkey and the discourse and proponents of the establishment completely disappear. This ideal situation will remain difficult to implement for some time, but chasing a "pareto optimal" balance in politics is probably a matter of life or death.
Turkey's troubles do not stem from the aforementioned imbalance alone. If anything, the country seeks to manage political imbalances through a new state of affairs that reflects the coexistence of de jure antidemocratic structures and a legal framework and the process of de facto democratization under the AK Party. To ensure complete democratization, the country's leadership must engage in various political movements rather than the proprietors of the status quo. The political process, however, has moved forward rather slowly since the AK Party, the driving force behind de facto democratization, finds itself compelled to persuade and satisfy members of the opposition - which is why it took years for the Kurdish reconciliation process to take hold as normalizing the relationship between the state and religion requires a slow and gradual road map and the Constitution's simplification generates a vicious political cycle.
Under normal circumstances, Turkey will not hold any elections for four years after the 2015 parliamentary contest. The country could seize this opportunity to enter a golden period of at least four years. After all, six elections have interrupted the political process since 2007. And even though popular contests have often served to promote democratization and change, they also slowed down, or brought to a halt, progress on various fronts. During this period, a number of factors including PKK violence, chaos in the Middle East, the global economic crisis, the opposition's reliance on street violence and the Gülen Movement's plots had a serious effect on the country. Against this backdrop, the Aug. 10 presidential vote largely set the tone for the 2015 parliamentary elections and ended a period of political uncertainty for both the ruling party and the opposition.
If correctly used, the current level of predictability could lead to a giant leap forward for Turkey. Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the nation's popularly elected president will serve as a facilitator, and possibly a pioneer in key areas. This alone would suffice to picture the vast amount of opportunities ahead.
Outside Turkey's borders, conflict areas have entered a vicious cycle to create their own status quo, but the country has developed a strong knowledge of risks and threats. Over the last few years, Turkey encountered a series of risks and threats and learned valuable lessons from its experiences. Meanwhile, the country has become largely immune to economic risks and past experiences will guide efforts to prepare for a potentially rough year in 2015. Looking ahead, Turkey offers a predictable environment in terms of political and economic vulnerabilities, risks as well as opportunities. The period that began with the Aug. 10 presidential election, therefore, is far from complicated. At this time, all political actors, with some courage and foresight, can contribute to the country's ongoing transformation. The opposition parties, however, have already made up their minds - which is only half bad. Proponents of the new Turkey agenda, however, will have to manage those who opted to consume the old Turkey to maintain their positions. This, of course, is a somewhat delicate but manageable situation.
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