War at the frontiers

The very bloody war in Syria has reached Turkey's southern borders. ISIS forces are now capable of staging large-scale military operations on different fronts at once. The town of Kobani, a stronghold of the PYD, which has declared "independence" in the region after the departure of military forces loyal to Assad, seems to be very seriously in danger of being conquered by ISIS.

So long as everybody in Syria now knows what being "conquered" by ISIS means, PYD fighters, supported by a handful of PKK militants and local resisters, are putting up fierce opposition. However, ISIS forces are capable of conducting large-scale military operations involving tanks and armored vehicles. Their chain of command has likely incorporated a number of officers and petty officers of the previously "elite" forces loyal to Saddam. This peculiar feature of the terrorist movement remains its striking edge. This is why up until now no local military force could match ISIS's military power.

The Kurds of Kobani are discovering that calling their stronghold "cantons" is not enough to have a peaceful system like in Switzerland. As a matter of fact, the PYD's strategy since the very beginning has been totally wrong. They have carefully chosen not to take sides, relying chiefly upon the PKK, which is present not only in Turkey but also and mainly in Iraq. They have distanced themselves from the united Syrian opposition, which did not want to invite them to Geneva conferences. Up until the emergence of ISIS, this northern part of Syria, next to the Turkish border, remained relatively calm. This temporary stability has reinforced the PYD (and the PKK) in their faith to organize a "safe haven" with Kurdish autonomy for good. Their relations with the Iraqi Kurdistan government were at best mild, at worst openly defiant.

Upon the emergence of ISIS and their blitzkrieg strategy, almost everyone in Iraq and Syria were caught unprepared. Today, ISIS is able to fight for Kobane as well as hundreds of kilometers in the south in the distant suburbs of Baghdad. The light weapons of PYD, effective for guerrilla warfare on the mountains, are no match for an open field battle against armored divisions.

The trouble is that Turkey, on one side having deepened the "peace process" with the PKK at home, could hardly remain totally passive for a mass murder just about to be perpetrated a few hundred meters from its frontier. Still, no one in Turkey feels ready to help a terror organization the army has been fighting for over 30 years and that has caused the death of perhaps 35,000 people.

Prime Minister Davutoğlu was walking on a tight rope when he declared that Turkey would not allow Kobani to fall to the hands of ISIS. That was a big relief for the Kurdish opposition in Turkey, as well as the main opposition party, which has been adamant in accusing the government of colluding with ISIS (with no supporting proof). The decree allowing the government to send military forces both to Iraq or Syria, as well as hosting foreign military forces for this endeavor, was accepted by a very large majority in Parliament. All these developments show that Turkey, after the liberation of its diplomats, will play a major role to bring a semblance of peace to the region. This certainly does not mean that Turkish military forces will be effectively sent into Syria, unless there is a wide consensus among NATO countries to form a "secure perimeter."