In line with the political solutions in Syria and Iraq, there is a very high probability that a two-state solution will be imposed on Israel and the Palestinian Authority
There is a French initiative backed by the U.S. to restart an umpteenth round of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority for a peaceful settlement in the occupied territories and Gaza.
This looks very much like a joke rather than a serious attempt to establish a platform for mutual understanding if one takes into consideration the composition of the new Israeli government and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's reaction to it. Uri Savir has written an interesting article for Al-Monitor showing that the initiative on the part of France may not be so ill-timed after all. The dynamics in motion in the Middle East have prepared an interesting perspective for autumn, even if preliminary talks cannot be held without trouble between Israeli officials and the Palestinian Authority.
In view of the terrible tragedy going on in Syria, the U.S. and European approach to bring a solution, or at least to bring an end to the bloodshed, is becoming visible, albeit very slowly and painfully.
In parallel with the nuclear talks held with Iran, the U.S. has already established the priorities for the region. Obviously, the first and foremost priority remains Syria, where a very difficult balance must be established between the remaining Baathist forces, administration and the democratic Syrian opposition to create a united front against the Islamic State if Iraq al-Sham (ISIS). This will help enormously to stabilize the situation in Iraq. Russia will be happy to have a solution in Syria that will ensure the presence of its naval base in Tartus while nobody knows what would be the price for Iran. Along with a cease-fire in Syria and Iraq and the removal of ISIS, the situation in Yemen can also be managed.
But these first priorities will not solve the immovable problems of the region such as the Palestinian and Cypriot issues. In line with the political solutions in Syria and Iraq there is a very high probability that a two-state solution will be imposed on Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Already a number of European States, including the Vatican, are recognizing Palestine as a fully-fledged state. Such countries can hardly be called "anti-Semitic regimes" because they have run out of patience in the face of Israeli intransigence.
The terrible turmoil in the Middle East and the radicalization of armed factions who compete between themselves in atrocities has shown the danger created by Israeli intransigence vis-a-vis Palestinian demands. Now the issue will be very thorny as long as nobody really believes that the 1967 borders can be preserved as such for a solution on the ground. However, the Israeli policy of "no solution is the best solution" has come to an end.
The same situation, albeit on a very different level, prevails in Cyprus. First, the Turkish Cypriots revolted against the "no solution is the best solution" policy, implemented and dexterously managed by Rauf Denktaş and some politicians and bureaucrats in Turkey. That could have led to a solution with the Annan Plan back in 2004, but Greek Cypriots were totally against reunification, not at all wanting a unified state with a Turkish minority having political equality. It took Greek Cypriots 11 years of various disappointments to come to understand that reunification requires sacrifices from both sides and that the Cyprus problem is not that of "an invasion and an occupation" only, as stated by outgoing U.S. ambassador to Cyprus John Koenig.
There is a deep underground movement rising in the Middle East that will shake the foundations of the old, conventional, business-as-usual policies. The future of the Egyptian regime obviously remains a big question in this transitional era.
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