With only a week left until the local elections, final bets are being placed in Ankara. Journalists, politicians and businessmen are taking friendly bets on how many votes each party will get. When the results are out, the losers become indebted to the winners, which may come in the form of a dinner or a new suit.

This has especially become a tradition among journalists in Ankara.

Those who participate want to prove how competent they are in social and political sciences by predicting the election results. However, the number of people who are correct in their predictions is incredibly low.

The reason is obvious. The claimants do not base their predictions on sociological and political observations or scientific facts, but on personal tendencies. For instance, journalists who are connected to the Gülen Movement, which the government accuses of infiltrating critical state institutions and using public powers for their own gains, believe the AK Party will have significantly fewer votes compared to previous elections. These journalists are quite assertive about this and even place adverts. Their relationship with reality and their competence in social and political observation will be tested by the election results.

Many surveys have been published about the local elections. Objective surveys conducted particularly in the last two weeks give us an estimation of what the results will be. It would be sufficient to go through old surveys and take the pulse of the streets to make a fair assumption as it is apparent that the local election will not surprise external objective onlookers and there will be no significant changes despite the Dec. 17 operation.

This is why I am now more interested in the period after the elections rather than the election itself. I am trying to assess the predictions of those interested in sociology and politics, and to evaluate the road maps of the executives.

Turkey will arrive at a crucial junction after March 30, in which two subjects we will be discussed.

The first subject is the suspicion of a parallel state that became an issue with the Dec. 17 operation. After the operation, which was considered a judicial coup, unlawfulness permeated the ranks of state institutions.

The government publicly announced that thousands of people had been illegally wiretapped and monitored, state power had been manipulated by a certain group in Turkey, and what can be characterized as espionage had been executed by public officials.

Investigations are still in process and we will witness the outcome of these investigations after the local elections. This has been made quite clear by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan.

Another related issue will be the corruption debate. It has been decided that these allegations, which the opposition is trying hard to keep on the agenda, will be discussed in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM). A parliamentary committee will run the investigation into the four ministers mentioned in the claims.

Turkey will approach the upcoming presidential elections in August in the shadow of these discussions.

It will be a summer in which society will focus completely on the presidential elections. Questions will include:

Who will be elected president?

Is Prime Minister Erdoğan going to be a candidate? Who will the other parties put up against Erdoğan? Will Erdoğan have the support of the public if he becomes a candidate? Surveys show that the results of the local elections will greatly influence the decision regarding Erdoğan's candidacy for the presidential elections. The bets are on.