The possibility of coalition

Published 22.04.2015 22:57
Updated 23.04.2015 01:46

With the June 7 general elections coming up, the word "coalition" has entered the lexicon of Turkish politics again after years of absence. While there is no data based on reliable sources to verify this expectation, a discussion is being conducted by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Despite missing data, the party aspires to tell its own base that the ruling party that has been in power for 12 years has lost its strength now in order to motivate them to cast ballots. Surveys conducted by some companies also aim to strengthen this perception by including manipulative data. It cannot be said that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is disturbed by this discussion, since the idea of a coalition does not have any positive connotation in the AK Party's base and in society. The term "coalition" is synonymous with economic crisis, disintegrated politics and instability in the eyes of the masses. The CHP's introduction of this discussion acts to motivate the AK Party base.

Under current conditions, two factors will determine the makeup of parliament. The first one is the votes that the AK Party, the CHP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) receive. The second factor is whether the Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) passes the 10-percent election threshold or not. According to some reliable research, there is no dramatic change in the vote rates of the AK Party, the CHP and the MHP. If we put undecided voters aside, the vote rates of all the parties mirror their former rates. The estimated rate of the AK Party is about 45-46 percent. In research conducted during March and April, a downward trend was observed in the AK Party's vote rates. This was a new phenomenon that does not have any similarity to former elections. But it is now indicated that the AK Party's rates have started to rise again. If the rates have entered an upward trend on the eve of the elections, it can be said that the AK Party will gain at least 45 percent on June 7.

A similar case also goes for the CHP and the MHP. It is stated that the CHP's vote rate is about 25 percent, while the MHP's is around 15 percent. The current conditions indicates that the MHP will not achieve the breakthrough expected from it. And contrary to expectations, the HDP will not receive some votes from the CHP's base. There will be no noteworthy decrease or increase in the CHP's vote rate. This is partly due to party chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's choices on the deputy candidate list. With some candidates, Kılıçdaroğlu tried to prevent losing votes to the HDP. It can be said that for now, he has achieved this.

There is some uncertainty regarding estimations of the HDP's vote rates, as survey companies show different results. It is evident that the HDP is on a knife-edge. Some survey companies point out that they will not speculate about whether the HDP will pass the threshold or not, since it is observed that the HDP has 9.1, 10.3, and 9.4 percent of the votes in different surveys. Due to this great uncertainty, it would not be surprising if the HDP enters parliament on June 7 with 10.1 percent, or if it remains under the threshold with 9.8 percent.

If the HDP remains under the threshold, the AK Party will come to power again in a stronger position, and even though it will not have the power to change the constitution on its own, it will have the authority to hold a referendum regarding constitutional reform. If the HDP passes the threshold, the AK Party will not have such authority.

In this case, will the AK Party's number of seats in parliament decrease below 276, and will the possibility of a coalition be brought to the agenda? The AK Party has a very slight chance of receiving 400 seats. But the possibility of it losing its chance of coming to power alone by receiving fewer than 276 seats is also low. Those speculating about the aftermath of June 7 should note that.

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