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Coup attempt fails to put off investors' appetite, analysts say

by Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL Jul 29, 2016 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Anadolu Agency Jul 29, 2016 12:00 am
A senior analyst at Northern Trust, a Chicago-based global financial services firm, Claire Meier said the recent developments in Turkey caused by the recent coup attempt will not negatively affect investors' appetite and debt service coverage in the middle and long term.

Managing funds worth over $900 billion worldwide, Northern Trust's senior analyst Meier spoke to Anadolu Agency and said that a country's financial status and debt service coverage could be negatively affected by the political uncertainties in general.

Stressing that a decrease in investor appetite might be in question during the first phase following the coup attempt in Turkey, Meier said the recent developments caused by the coup attempt in Turkey will not negatively affect investor appetite and debts service coverage in the middle and long term. According to Meier, just after the attempt, the Turkish lira saw a small decrease while the interest in government bonds in dollars and local currency increased slightly. "Interest in government bonds and currency has recently shown a decrease once more, however, they are just above their former levels. The main point that will decrease the appetite of foreign investors is that it is not fully understood how it's domestic and foreign policy will change following the coup attempt," Meier said, "In this context, Turkey is now going through a self-explaining period. In order to create the appropriate environment for foreign investors, it is crucial for Turkey to tell the world very well about the domestic and foreign policies it will follow."

Pointing out that Turkey has managed to attract foreign investors so far thanks to its powerful institutions and proving its belief in the rule of law, Meier said: "The most important issue that international credit rating agencies take under consideration while assessing the credit rating is the country's ability to attract foreign capital."

'4 pct growth trend will be preserved'

Ziraat Bank Strategy Manager Bora Tamer Yılmaz said they made sure the markets operated smoothly along with the fast reaction given by the authorities in the week following the coup attempt.

Noting that despite the measures taken in the first week, the pricing did not reflect Turkey's 4 percent growth trend, Yılmaz said the recent events were received with concern by investors, but after the following weekend, pricings recovered when the events were clearly evaluated. "While CDS 270 dropped basis points, Borsa Istanbul started the week with strong purchases. The currency was strengthened towards 3.02. Investors' appetite this week was parallel with the 4 percent growth trend. We believe Turkey will preserve its 4 percent growth trend," Yılmaz said, and that Turkey's expenses increased slightly due to the risk premium increasing during the first phase. Yılmaz said Turkish banks continue to look for finance from abroad and domestic demand has not experienced recession yet.

'Ratings will stay at an investable level'

Indicating that international credit rating agencies were too quick to react, Yılmaz said: "What really matters in credit ratings is debt loyalty. Turkey has a history of debt loyalty. Public finance is Turkey's strongest suit. Their tax incomes in the growth environment support the budget balance. Decreasing the need for borrowing will keep public borrowing at a discipline-reflecting level." Stressing that they did not find the developments regarding Turkey's credit rating just, since the situation of not repaying the debt seemed unrealistic, Yılmaz said their expectation was for Moody's to leave Turkey's credit rating at an investable level.
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  • Last Update: Jul 29, 2016 1:02 am
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