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Germany quietly bracing for economic crisis as Merkel exits

by Daily Sabah

ISTANBUL Mar 29, 2019 - 8:50 pm GMT+3
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz looks on at the lower house of parliament (Bundestag), ahead of a Brussels summit for Brexit delay discussions, in Berlin, Germany March 21, 2019. (Reuters Photo)
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz looks on at the lower house of parliament (Bundestag), ahead of a Brussels summit for Brexit delay discussions, in Berlin, Germany March 21, 2019. (Reuters Photo)
by Daily Sabah Mar 29, 2019 8:50 pm

The German government is quietly preparing for an economic downturn as Chancellor Angela Merkel's transition from power nears, a report Friday said.

The Bloomberg report said Merkel's government foresees an economic recession on the horizon but is working to maintain voters' enthusiasm while putting an economic action plan in place.

Berlin has only forecast a brief slowdown before growth picks up speed again next year, but the report said the government fears a more serious downturn.

An economic recession coinciding with Merkel's transition out of office could blindside voters, shaking up the political landscape for the next election, German officials told Bloomberg.

Germany's Council of Economic Experts last week cut its 2019 growth forecast to 0.8 percent from its early prediction of 1.8 percent, despite maintaining a 1.4 percent rate for next year.

"There are many global risks currently overshadowing the economy," Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lawmaker Matthias Heider told Bloomberg.

"If global risks accumulate further, it might be too much for growth to be sustained," said Heider, who is a member of the lower house's economic committee.

One indicator of the German government's serious concerns is its chancy plan for a merger of Deutsche Bank with rival Commerzbank, which could avoid a future bailout, despite the outcry over as many as 30,000 jobs put at risk.

Coalition lawmakers are also discussing the possibility of expanding constitution restrictions on deficit spending, another move exposing worries about a recession.

The government has ready a set of preliminary recession-combating measures from investment incentives to tax cuts, the report said citing people familiar with Berlin's plans.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said this week that he is ready to use all fiscal measures he can to stimulate the economy in case of a crisis, though he did not include modifying constitutional limits in those options.

Merkel has downplayed the looming crisis, telling the Bundestag last week that she foresees "times of growth," despite a "somewhat clouded" outlook for the European Union, as Brexit woes and U.S. trade tensions persist.

Merkel's inner circle has been tightlipped on the future of the economy, bringing doomsdayers promptly in line.

In January, Scholz told the Bild tabloid that "the fat years are over," but was quickly reprimanded by Merkel-ally Economy Minister Peter Altmaier.

"One shouldn't undermine the economic upswing by talking it down," Altmaier responded.

Scholz has since called Germany's economic outlook "normalization."

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