Credibility of polling companies questioned as predictions fall short
by Merve Aydoğan
ANKARAMar 23, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Merve Aydoğan
Mar 23, 2015 12:00 am
As the June 7 general elections in Turkey approach with less than three months to go, a number of research companies in Turkey continue to conduct surveys in efforts to predict the possible results. While many research companies were able to predict results during previous elections, some companies displayed poll results that were greatly biased in terms of the numbers predicted for the elections. In this regard, for the upcoming general elections in Turkey, research companies once again have announced their results, through which some aim to manipulate the public through the media. Gezici Research Company, a widely-debated polling company, has once again announced its prediction for the ruling Justice and Development Part's (AK Party) votes, with their research indicating that the percentage of individuals in favor of the AK Party has dropped to 38 percent. Although the polling company claims to have 11 years of experience in the polling field, it has failed to make noteworthy predictions, having been off by 8 to 10 percent.
The Gezici Research Company predicted that in the 2014 local elections, the AK Party's votes would drop to 41 percent, when in fact it was 42.87 percent, and the ruling AK Party has experienced a nearly 4 percent increase since the 2009 elections. In addition, the polling company also indicated in 2013 that the AK Party's votes would drop to 38 percent following the Gezi Park protests. The same company yet again announced its surveying results for the upcoming June elections, announcing their findings that the AK Party would receive 39 percent of the vote and that the party would fail to become a ruling party on its own. Exemplifying the range of predictions, a prominent Turkish polling company, GENAR, has predicted the results would be similar to the 2011 elections and the AK Party will achieve 47.7 percent of the vote, while the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was predicted to receive 25 percent, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would get 13 percent of the vote. In addition, in early January 2015, MAK Consultancy indicated that 48.4 percent of participants in one of its surveys support the AK Party, while 25.4 percent would vote for the CHP and 14 percent would opt for the MHP.
The SONAR research institution, which is known to be pro-CHP, recently announced that the AK Party would nearly reach the 40-percent range. According to SONAR, the AK Party will not be able to come to power without the support of a coalition partner following the upcoming June 7 elections. Although the ruling AK Party achieved 42.87 percent in the last 2014 local elections, another surveying company, the MetroPOLL Research Company, has indicated the AK Party's votes would drop to 41 percent and continue to drop drastically according to their surveys. However, the MetroPOLL Company predicted that the AK Party would have 36 percent of the vote in the 2014 elections. In this regard, the credibility of polling companies in Turkey is being questioned, as companies often provide inaccurate predictions.
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