The sharp decline in oil prices is unlikely to benefit Turkey's rating in the coming year, according to a Standard & Poor's (S&P) report published yesterday. "What low energy prices give in terms of a lower import bill, they at least partly take away via declines in exports and lower capital inflows," said the United States-based credit rating agency S&P's credit analyst Aarti Sakhuja. According to the "Is the Oil Price Drop Really a Boon for Turkey?" report, exports to oil-producing economies account for 20 percent of Turkish exports in dollars.

In the January-November 2015 period, exports to these countries were 15 percent lower compared to the previous year, the report said, adding that foreign direct investment inflows into Turkey from these markets also dropped by more than 20 percent in the same period. Although the falling oil prices have slightly narrowed the current account deficit, S&P said this alone would not help rebalance Turkey's external finances whose profile has shifted since late 2009 from "equity to debt inflows, and an increase in investment in construction, consumption and non-tourism services, which do not generate foreign currency receipts." "We assess Turkey as having one of the weakest external profiles among all the major emerging market sovereigns we rate and as being highly susceptible to shifts in investor sentiment and global liquidity," the report said. Sakhuja added: "One of the risks that we see for Turkey is that external debt might not be rolled over, leading to a sudden stop and a growth shock for the country."