Downward trend of five months in Borsa Istanbul expected to end this month
by Daily Sabah with AA
ISTANBULOct 05, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Daily Sabah with AA
Oct 05, 2015 12:00 am
October has yielded good profits for the Borsa Istanbul's investors for three years in a row and is expected to maintain this trend this year as well as well as end the recent downward trend. As a result of the downward trend that has continued on a monthly basis over the past five months, the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST 100) caused a loss of 11 percent for investors. Analysts suggest that the BIST 100, which dropped nearly 13 percent when compared to the beginning of the year, might rise in October despite the busy domestic and international agenda. They estimate the index might soar up to 80,000 in the best-case scenario and fall down to 68,000 in the worst-case scenario.
Commenting on the global factors influencing markets, Saxo Capital Strategist Cüneyt Paksoy said September was a turning point for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to make more specific pricing for markets. Moreover, Fed Board Chair Janet Yellen's remark that every meeting can have the potential for an interest rate hike aggravates uncertainty in markets depending on the Fed. Paksoy also said problems regarding global growth have risen particularly for China and historic-low commodity prices are poised to be a new crisis topic, apart from supporting the global economy on behalf of cost-based growth. "As long as commodity prices remain low, concerns over countries that produce such commodities and large intercessory companies will preoccupy markets in October as well," he added.
Additionally, following Russia's recent operations in Syria in October, Paksoy said Syria will have a larger effect on the dynamics of internal markets. Also, developments in Syria and the risk of its expansion toward Iran and Iraq may become the events to be priced by global markets. Paksoy stressed that, on account of the upcoming snap elections in Turkey, any news to stem from politics, poll results on elections and the expectations about the aftermath of the elections will be the main factors affecting internal markets other than global factors. "Within the last period, The BIST 100 Index has been fluctuating between 70,000 and 77,000 for which the interval of 73,000-74,000 is the pivot - including the 200 week upper-average. Technically speaking, if the 70000s are missed, 68,000 will be the lower level, while if the index surpasses 77,000, 80,000 will be the expected upper level.
Furthermore, Şeker Investment technical analyst Fatih Tomakin said the effect of the terrorist attacks in September and the fluctuations in global markets caused the level to be around 71,000. Also, following the Fed's holding rates in September and Fitch's not changing Turkey's credit note, within the month, BIST 100 tested levels higher than 76,000. Tomakin also highlighted that eyes will be set on expected data from China and the Fed's monthly October meeting, whereas on the national scale, the process of the early elections and the snap election poll results will continue to be key developments. He also added that they anticipate the markets will be an attempt to be balanced as a result of the decline in volatility both in internal and external markets.
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