Having held talks in Turkey on July 17-18, U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley said their visit has strengthened their view of the Turkish lira, while the bank has kept the year-end estimate of the U.S. dollar-Turkish lira parity at 3.6.
U.S. banking giant Morgan Stanley assessed their visit to Turkey on July 17-18. The bank, which held talks with politicians, political analysts, journalists, bankers and ambassadors as well as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the Turkish Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in Ankara and Istanbul, noted that their visit has strengthened their view of the Turkish lira. "We continue to expect support from the central bank policy for the Turkish lira to continue in the next few months, but worries over the quality of growth, politics and external balance sheet risks continue," the bank noted, adding that Turkey is likely to remain fragile against the volatility created by the Federal Reserve (Fed)/European Central Bank (ECB) policy, and that they maintain the year-end estimate of the dollar-Turkish lira parity at 3.6.
Stating that they remain "neutral" for the Turkish lira, Morgan Stanley recommended that investors take part in the upward movement expected in other emerging market currencies, such as the Mexican peso, the Polish zloty and the Indian rupee.
Morgan Stanley analysts stressed in their reports that they predicted that the monetary policy in Turkey will remain tight for longer than expected, that they do not expect early elections, and that the political focus will return to foreign policy.
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