Extreme weather events, driven by climate change, are reducing agricultural production in Mediterranean countries, threatening the region's lifestyle and dietary habits. The Mediterranean diet, known for being one of the healthiest in the world, is being affected by these changes, which are also causing food prices to rise.
The Mediterranean diet, selected as the healthiest diet for seven consecutive years by U.S. News & World Report, was added to UNESCO's Intangible Cultural Heritage List in 2010.
However, the Mediterranean region’s vulnerability to the climate crisis is putting pressure on the components of the Mediterranean diet.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Mediterranean region is warming 20% faster than the global average. Water demand in the region is expected to at least double by 2050, with temperatures rising between 1.8 and 3.5 degrees Celsius (3.24 and 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. A 2-degree increase in temperature is projected to reduce rainfall by 10%-15%.
This situation is affecting every level of the Mediterranean diet pyramid in various ways.
Research conducted by scholars at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) indicates that the number of days spent outdoors in Mediterranean countries is decreasing. In a worst-case scenario, by 2100, the number of days spent outdoors in Portugal could drop by 33 and by seven in the best-case scenario. In Greece, a reduction of 30 days is expected in the worst-case scenario and 24 days in the best-case scenario.
In Spain, the drop is 13 days in the worst-case scenario and three days in the best-case scenario. In Morocco, it’s 37 days in the worst case and 17 days in the best case. In Croatia, the worst-case scenario predicts a 22-day drop and three days in the best case. In Italy, a seven-day reduction is expected in the worst-case scenario, while no change is anticipated in the best-case scenario.
A study titled "The Effects of Climate Change on the Mediterranean Diet in Italy," conducted by academics at the University of Padova in Italy, forecasts that climate change will lead to droughts and erosion in the region, increasing the need for agricultural irrigation by 4% to 18%.
Water scarcity in the region is expected to rise by 28% to 48% and hydraulic droughts affecting river flows are expected to become more frequent as global warming intensifies. If global warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius, the intensity of droughts could double in some areas of the Mediterranean.
According to the study, extreme weather events in recent years, particularly in 2022, caused significant damage to olive oil production. The unusually warm spring affected flowering, pollination and fruit formation, harming many flowers due to excessive sunlight and the Sirocco wind from the Sahara Desert.
As a result, olive oil production dropped significantly. In Europe, production decreased by 39%, with Italy, the largest producer, losing 54%, Spain 27%, France 38% and Portugal 39%.
Cereal production in the Mediterranean has also been impacted by the climate crisis. In 2022, corn production in France fell by 30%, 20% in Spain and 23% in Italy.
Hard wheat production in Italy decreased by 9%, and soft wheat production in Spain dropped by 28%.
In 2023, apple production in Spain fell by 15%, peaches by 26% and tomatoes by 9%. In Portugal, apple production dropped by 20%, peaches by 26%, and in Italy, orange production fell by 19%. In Greece, apple production decreased by 32% and tomatoes by 20%.
According to European Parliament data from 2024, more than 30% of the Mediterranean’s marine habitats are under threat from land and sea-based pollution, climate change, invasive species and overfishing.
Twenty-one percent of species are classified as "sensitive" and 11% as "endangered."
Seagrass habitats, which are crucial for many fish species, are rapidly disappearing. The loss of these habitats is expected to negatively impact ecosystems and regional fisheries.
Between 1950 and 2011, the Mediterranean lost about 40% of its top predator species, including marine mammals, and 34% of fish species. By the end of the century, more than 30 endemic species are expected to go extinct.
Professor Yüksel Altuntaş, education director of the Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinic at the Şişli Hamidiye Etfal Training and Research Hospital, responded to questions about the Mediterranean diet and its health benefits, emphasizing that physical activity and socializing are fundamental to this dietary culture.
Altuntaş explained, “Mediterranean countries enjoy a sunny climate, which has very positive effects on people. It also encourages physical activity and exercise. Eating together while socializing slows down chewing, which benefits digestion and weight control.”
He stressed that whole grains, vegetables, fruits, olive oil, fish and legumes are essential components of the Mediterranean diet, which has preventive effects against diseases like cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, stroke, Parkinson's and dementia.
On the role of olive oil and fish in the diet, Altuntaş noted, “Nothing can replace olive oil. The polyphenols in olive oil make it special. Other oils are important, but none possess these properties. Fish is important in this diet because it keeps you full. However, due to microplastics and heavy metals in the Mediterranean, fish may be harmful.”
Food anthropologist Alessandra Guigoni, based in Sardinia, southern Italy, explained that people in her area enjoy long walks and socializing, with weather conditions being a key factor for such activities.
Guigoni said, “As you know, the climate is changing and summers are becoming much hotter. May and September have become more suitable for outdoor activities.”
She pointed out that legumes are an important part of the region’s dietary culture, with artichokes, tomatoes, citrus and pomegranates being the most consumed products.
Guigoni added: “Although agriculture remains important in Italy, products are becoming very expensive. Sometimes vegetables and fruits cost more than meat. For example, fresh figs cost 1 euro each last summer. If we want to buy directly from local producers instead of the market, we need to travel 40 minutes by car. As a result, people sometimes buy fewer fruits and vegetables. Also, olive oil prices have risen due to low production in recent years. Climate change may be a factor contributing to this, leading people to turn to other oils.”
Professor Paolo Tarolli, a faculty member at the Department of Agricultural Irrigation Management at the University of Padova, emphasized that global warming has increased water stress in the Mediterranean, affecting agricultural activities due to rising temperatures and seasonal shifts.
Tarolli highlighted that products requiring irrigation, such as olives, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. He said, "In Spain, Italy, Greece and probably Türkiye, growing olives is becoming increasingly difficult. However, olives are crucial for our diet and we cannot afford to lose them."
He emphasized that heat waves are a significant problem in the region, making agriculture – particularly for irrigated crops – a delicate issue, contributing to rising prices.
Tarolli concluded: “If prices continue to rise, people may need to allocate larger budgets just to eat well in the future. Healthy eating might require sacrifices in other areas. In Italy, eating well is deeply rooted in our culture. The solution requires cooperation among all countries. We must combine science, policymakers and other stakeholders. This is not easy, but we should try to integrate traditional knowledge with AI, satellites and various technologies while these changes are happening.”
