Recent research by Rabobank suggests that dairy sales in Europe are declining as consumers turn to plant-based alternatives. The Good Food Institute Europe 2023 report further confirms this trend, noting a 21% increase in plant-based "cheese" sales from 2020 to 2022. This shift may prompt European cheesemakers to explore new markets.
Later in the year, dairy industry analysts at Kite found the sector to be facing a "perfect storm of weak demand caused by inflationary price increases." Dairy has been caught up in the inflation wave that has hit Europe since mid-2021, with prices for shoppers rising along with most other food items.
It means experts are predicting dairy producers will look to China for sales in the coming years as cheese consumption flatlines in established markets.
"We estimate China’s annual cheese imports will reach 270,000 to 320,000 metric tons in 2030," said Michelle Huang, a dairy analyst at Rabobank, which in a recent report predicted China would be "a growth engine for the global cheese trade."
Although the market for cheese in China grew at around 16% a year from 2012-22, consumption among China’s 1.4 billion population remains relatively low, not only compared to Europe and North America but weighed against cheese-eating per capita in wealthier neighbors Japan and South Korea.
"Drivers of this growth include a rise in disposable income among middle-class consumers, the growing appetite for Western-style quick-service-restaurant chains, and novel uses of cream cheese and mozzarella," Rabobank said.
And although domestic Chinese cheese production is rising, it is not likely to be enough to meet local demand, Rabobank predicted, meaning dairy-exporting powerhouses such as New Zealand, the U.S., the Netherlands and Ireland could have an opening. At least not if India, the world’s biggest dairy producer, needs most of its output for its 1.4 billion people.
Farmers in Europe have in recent weeks been protesting what they see as increasingly stifling rules, some of which are aimed at cutting emissions in sectors such as dairy but which they say are making it more complicated and pricey to operate.
