Chinese medical office worker Qin Meng has found a lucrative side-hustle: she wakes up before midnight, fills in her clients' divorce certificate applications on a government website, then hits the confirm button exactly at the top of the hour.
Miss it by seconds and the daily slots are "gone in the blink of an eye," says the 30-year-old, who charges 400 yuan ($56) for her service, bringing relief to couples who have sometimes spent six months trying for a slot.
Demographers say the emergence of impromptu agents like Qin, who advertise on Chinese social media, is another sign of how the slowing economy is piling financial stress on married couples and contributing to the breakdown of relationships.
The 2024 divorce rate has yet to be announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, but Yi Fuxian, a Chinese demographer and senior scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison, expects it to hit 2.6 per 1,000 people, against a low of 2.0 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This compares with the most recent rates of 1.5 in Japan and 1.8 in South Korea.
"Poverty destroys marriage," said Yi, warning divorce numbers were inversely correlated with birth rates and could worsen the country's demographic crisis.
"China's economic downturn in recent years and the rising youth unemployment rate have reduced the economic capacity of families, exacerbated family conflicts and thereby increased the divorce rate."
While the economy is expanding at about 5% a year, Chinese households have been saving more because of concerns about job security and the impact of a prolonged property crisis.
Much of the economic growth has relied on export competitiveness, but Chinese firms, hit by U.S. tariffs, have cut jobs or lowered pay to reduce costs, while millions of fresh university graduates are struggling to find work.
The rising financial pressure was thrust into the spotlight last year after a driver rammed his car into a crowd killing 35 people in what was the country's deadliest attack in recent history.
The court found that at the time of his offence, the driver was angry with his divorce settlement. He was sentenced to death.
Soon after, the bimonthly Communist Party magazine Qiushi republished a 2016 speech by President Xi Jinping that argued "harmonious families lead to a stable society."
In a further sign that the rebound in divorces is driven by financial strain, demographers point at data showing lower divorce rates in affluent coastal areas and higher ones in poorer inner and northern regions.
Zhou Minghui booked her divorce appointment herself on the fifth attempt, after weeks of worry that her ex-husband might change his mind about their separation.
Zhou said her motivation for divorce was what she described as her ex's "reckless financial investments." He had lost nearly 4 million yuan in the stock market in the space of three years, forcing the couple to sell their home, she said. Even then, they were only able to repay just over half of the debt he had taken to buy the shares.
"When the economy is in a downturn, people shouldn't be so eager to invest or consume,” said 38-year-old Zhou, who works in the education industry in the southern city of Shenzhen.
The COVID-era drop in divorce appears increasingly like an anomaly. Demographers say it was the result not only of the shutdown of nonessential public services, but also by the 2021 introduction of a 30-day mandatory cool-off period for couples seeking amicable divorce outside the courts.
Couples need to get on the Civil Affairs Department's website twice – before and after that monthlong breather – to book appointments to register their divorce. But the demand now far exceeds the available daily slots.
The agents, people like Qin, have figured this out and advertise their services for anything from 50 yuan to 999 yuan.
Qin has earned 5,000 yuan, nearly half her monthly salary from her day job, since she started the side gig "for fun" in March. She receives multiple daily enquiries and expects to earn much more.
"The economy is not great, so there's more pressure at work and more conflicts in marriage," Qin said. "Divorce rates will keep rising."
