Report: Iran's nuclear deal may alter domestic and regional dynamics
by Fatih Şemsettin Işık
ANKARAApr 14, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Fatih Şemsettin Işık
Apr 14, 2015 12:00 am
A report published by the Ankara-based SETA Foundation (Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research) on April 4 suggests that the framework agreement that was signed following nuclear talks between P5+1 countries (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany) and Iran could have possible consequences regarding the domestic politics of Iran as well as regional issues.
Entitled "Geopolitical Complexity, Nuclear Agreement between Iran and the West," the report stresses that the framework agreement has the potential to lead to many changes and consequences in the Middle East, passing beyond a simple nuclear energy issue. Penned by co-editors of the report, Kılıç Buğra Kanat and Abdullah Yegin, the experts warned the countries that fiercely criticized the process, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, saying "All of these countries might seek different patterns of politics, in case of a likely final agreement or following even the current agreement. Then, this might bring about a new situation with regards to regional geopolitics."
Underlining the fact that the agreement launches a new and difficult period in domestic and foreign policy for the U.S., the report says that this agreement would inevitably create tension between U.S. President Barack Obama and Congress, referencing the results of a poll taken by the Pew Research Center. "In the case of a likely agreement with Iran, the question whether which institution should approve the agreement was responded to by participants as 62 percent for Congress, while only 29 percent said the White House. These results reveal why Obama needs a reasonable ground for bypassing Congress in case of a final agreement with Iran."
Claiming that a final agreement would create a loss of confidence between the U.S. and Israel, the report also mentions the relations between the U.S., Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries that might be influenced on the occasion of the final agreement. "Therefore, in order to maintain relations along the same line, it is necessary for the U.S. to take serious confidence-building measures in their relations with the Gulf countries. At this point, the dissonance between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in Syria and the situation in Iraq would be at the top of the agenda," the report says.
The study also predicts that in the event of an agreement, "since Iran has the capability, opportunity and capacity to rapidly produce and export oil, oil prices may drop."
Meanwhile, the study emphasizes that although the latest agreement between the P5+1 and Iran was no more than a framework agreement, it is possible to infer that nothing is going to be the same in the region.