Aleksandr Dugin calls it “World War III, ahead of us.” You don’t have to be as pessimistic as him, the Russian far-right political philosopher and a leading theorist of Duginism, but you too might be seeing a vortex, a pandemonium, at least a brouhaha in the international game field that is almost upon us.
Historian John Dalberg-Acton (better known as Lord Acton) used to say, “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Dugin, a realist in political theory, but mostly substituting reality with what he thinks it is, disagrees, saying, “Absolute power is wonderful.” Lord Acton had timeless observations on the dangers of concentrated authority; Dugin, on the other hand, sees that the new multipolar world order lacks sufficient concentration of global authority. Therefore, there could be no peaceful future, but rather multipolarity will end up in escalated conflicts.
The history taught us a rule: Historical shifts are decided through wars. One may argue whether the existing international tectonic power plates have not shifted historically yet. We assume that a really historic tectonic shift happened when the British decided to deep-six the Ottoman Empire, create a vacant lot in Palestine and send their (and all other European) Jews packing for their new homeland there. Eight new countries were created after that earthquake.
Now, you might think that other such Duginesque vibrations are happening in the world. I believe U.S. President Donald Trump and his (with the iconic epithet the late Alev Alatlı used to depict such relationships) “ecurie” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can create similarly powerful earthquakes, because they are playing cowboy on one of the fault lines the British created when they were remapping the Islamic world. Actually, I need to correct this last expression: Netanyahu plays, and his ecurie Donald keeps watching. Do you need proof for that? OK, here it is.
The mighty big-ol’ U.S.’ president rounds up leaders and foreign ministers of eight Arab and Muslim countries in New York on the first day of Rosh Hashanah and presents them with a 21-point plan to end Israel’s genocide and massacres in Gaza. He makes a speech promising he won’t let Israel annex the West Bank or the Gaza Strip. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, apparently one of the authors of it, provided some details on it, saying, “It addresses Israeli concerns and the concerns of all the neighbors in the region.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described the meeting as “fruitful” in an interview on Fox News Channel.
Right? The next day, it was featured on all international and U.S. media. Later, he welcomed Erdoğan at the White House; following the tete-a-tete and working lunch with their delegations at the Oval Office, Trump accompanied Erdoğan to the door as he departed. Two days later, he welcomed Netanyahu at the door; they had a long meeting and joint news conference, in which a 20-point (not 21!) peace plan was agreed to. Right after the news conference, The Times of Israel reported that “Netanyahu secured key edits to Trump plan!” In the plan that Trump discussed and secured approval of eight Muslim and Arab leaders, Israel’s Gaza withdrawal was too fast and too wide to Netanyahu’s taste. So the Israeli prime minister made sure that it was changed. Netanyahu asked and Trump (with the choice words of the Israeli newspaper) edited key points. Netanyahu found it “too vague,” and Trump made changes so that Netanyahu could accept it. (By the way: the 21st point was rejecting the annexation of West Sharia, which Netanyahu promised to do shortly.)
Now, the not-so-vague plan asks Hamas to return all the live hostages in three days, giving up the only leverage it has. It should itself disarm and destroy all the tunnels. In exchange for what? Well, Trump and his buddy Bibi will decide when the political future will be discussed. When? Well, he said “later,” didn’t he? Tony Blair, the new regional governor of Gaza and a former British prime minister, will oversee discussions when the time comes to consider the future. But, as Netanyahu said and Trump affirmed that Netanyahu said it, there will be no, N-O, nooooo to a Palestinian state, despite all these forthcoming discussions. (If Hamas accepts this plan as is, it should change its name to “Hamush.”)
The leaders and ministers, or their media representatives, said that it was no longer the peace plan they had talked about and agreed upon. But who cares?! An all-smiles Netanyahu would go back to his country and tell his media that there was nothing in that U.S. plan that anybody in the Israeli Parliament or army would object to.
How is that the proof of my statement that Netanyahu was playing cowboy (while Trump was watching as a well-behaved child) on one of the fault lines the British created in the political structure of the Middle East?
Is Trump acting as a well-behaved kid, or “ringneck dove” or “a lime hound on a leash”? And why is that important for an environment that would make all the predictions Dugin has come true?
Almost everyone agrees that the world is undergoing rapid and drastic changes, and the erratic administration of Trump has left the whole globe, at least its Western half, which used to follow the leadership of the U.S., in a state of uncertainty. In other words, in today’s world, it is easy for many nations to get lost.
The fact that the U.S. has been trying to step back from its role as global hegemon has led its European vassals to think they had to maintain the pretense that everything was fine – who needed U.S. leadership anyway? So, we ended up in what they call “Multipolarity” or a rudderless world. The single hierarchy with the Western World at the top is no more.
Russia and China broke the Western chokehold and created their own “polarity.” India, Iran and Japan had to join the China-Russia fold. In a multipolar situation, indecisiveness is not an option, nor is weakness. They call you “paper-tiger,” or they presume you have legitimacy because of your affiliation with them. You agree to their peace proposal in a joint meeting, but they “edit” the text you agreed upon.
You have to see through them to understand their true intentions. We don’t have to jump to the “war option” Alexander Dugin talks about. There are subtler ways to address those who harbor illusions that any disagreements with them can be resolved through force. Let them change the name of their Department of Defense to War Department; call all their generals and admirals into a hall to scold them and ask them to lose weight and beards.
Sometimes a tiny vessel of Sumud (Arabic for "steadfast perseverance") flotilla breaks through what is to be the insurmountable naval blockade around Gaza, and from that hole in the wall, the hope, the most irresistible weapon of humanity, enters your castle to end all the expectations of the powerful.
So, stop thinking everyone is blind and the world is foolish, as Ziya Pasha says. Or, as Saint Paul the Apostle writes in Corinthians, don’t boast about what you can do; you, too, are a human, after all.
