When U.S. President Donald Trump was confronted with the Ukraine-Russia War, he made a diplomatic blunder rarely seen in modern history. While from the outside, the U.S. may appear to possess vast diplomatic experience and institutional memory, even the world’s most powerful country is capable of making surprisingly basic mistakes.
What Trump should have done upon taking office was clear. The war had two sides: On one side were the U.S., Europe and Ukraine; on the other stood Russia alone. Especially after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and its de facto control of the eastern regions, it was already clear that Russia was willing to fight the war primarily on Ukrainian soil.
As president, Trump’s priority should have been to strengthen his own side. He could have increased pressure on Russia, potentially even enabling Ukraine to reclaim some territory. Once a military balance was achieved, peace talks could begin. A war that is tipped heavily in one direction does not create the right conditions for peace for either side.
Instead, Trump weakened his own position. Rather than countering Russia, he targeted his allies. Driven by domestic political concerns and the cost of the war effort, he directed his criticism at figures like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his predecessor Joe Biden, channeling internal political tensions into foreign policy – a historic error. He cut aid to Ukraine, undermined his own coalition and weakened the West's front.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the opportunity. He reinforced the battlefield with more troops and military equipment, stepped up pressure on Ukraine, and even slightly expanded territorial gains. In this context, he had little interest in rushing to the negotiating table. Despite incremental efforts toward peace, such as meetings in Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, Russia has maintained its upper hand.
In 2022, the groundwork for peace was laid in Dolmabahçe, Istanbul. But the British, unwilling to support a settlement, published images of Russian atrocities, effectively suspending the peace process. Ukraine’s Parliament even went so far as to nearly outlaw peace negotiations.
As noted in two separate essays by renowned Japanese American political scientist Francis Fukuyama, Selçuk Bayraktar revolutionized modern warfare with his drones. But since then, Ukraine has again transformed the battlefield – this time with its “Operation Spiderweb” and highly capable, individually deployed drones. Ukraine managed to destroy roughly one-third of Russia’s nuclear-capable strategic aircraft, inflicting around $8 billion in damage.
Notably, some reports suggest that Russia no longer possesses the technical capacity to reproduce particular Cold War-era aircraft. Yet despite these heavy losses, Russia has not responded with the expected aggression. Instead, it continues to operate with the composure of a foremost power, remaining engaged at the negotiation table as planned.
Today, European states are gripped by profound security anxiety. From Germany to France, there is an apparent lack of military strength. Should Ukraine fall, there would be no real force left to resist Russia all the way to France. The intensely bureaucratic and institutionalized nature of Europe’s states also means they are poorly positioned to rapidly rebuild a credible security architecture.
The war has once again exposed the power imbalance between the U.S. and Europe. European nations remain almost entirely dependent on the U.S. Among them, it appears that the U.K. is particularly opposed to the war’s end. With historical scores to settle with Russia, the U.K. faces no immediate threat itself. The battle is being fought in continental Europe, far from British shores.
Much like Trump, the U.K. seems to favor a strategy of weakening the European continent. This would both strain U.S.-Europe relations and help undermine Russia. The days ahead could bring a major surprise: the war could either spill further into Europe or suddenly pivot toward peace.
In one sense, wars are fought to define borders and red lines. But in a context where Russia has deeply penetrated Ukraine and annexed Crimea, the question of where to draw those lines becomes increasingly complex. This war may well end with an unexpected expansion or a surprising peace.
