As the war in Ukraine continued to favor Russia, the peace talks in Istanbul on Monday were anticipated to transition into a de-escalation phase. However, these talks were interrupted on June 1, when Ukraine executed a significant operation planned for nearly a year and a half.
According to Russia, three out of five attacks were thwarted, with one successful attack being a kamikaze drone strike against Strategic bombers at the Belaya air base, about 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) from Kyiv. At the same time, Russia's strategic bombers at the Olenya air base on the border with Finland were destroyed.
Footage circulating on the internet shows that five Tu-95 and two Tu-22M nuclear-capable strategic bombers were completely destroyed. Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft and A-50 early warning and control aircraft were also damaged. It is estimated that the attacks caused at least $5 billion worth of damage. Following the attack, some Russian strategic bombers at other bases began taking off due to the threat of further attacks.
One of the most important questions here is how an attack of this scale was successful. The AI-powered drones used in the attack infiltrated Russia from various regions in specially designed trucks. The attack was carried out semi-autonomously, with hundreds of drones taking off from areas very close to air bases. The drones operated remotely via the Russian mobile telecommunications network. This network has sufficient bandwidth to transmit images instantaneously to operators in Ukraine. Additionally, the drones, which targeted specific bombers, were provided with information about the aircraft's weaknesses through artificial intelligence before the attack. This increased the accuracy of the attack.
This is an asymmetric attack. It can be said that the strategically important airport is not adequately protected, or at least not protected against current threats. While areas of such importance are protected against large-scale attacks, they are vulnerable to smaller, simpler yet effective ones. No matter how advanced old technology is, it is vulnerable to new, simpler technology. The ability of a low-cost RPG to overcome a tank is a similar example. The Spider Web operation demonstrates the vital importance of advanced counter-unmanned aircraft defense systems for such strategic bases.
These aircraft are designed to travel long distances and deliver heavy payloads deep inside target countries. We have also seen some bombers launch ballistic missile attacks in Ukraine. The exact impact of Kyiv's high-profile operation on Russia's long-range strike capabilities, as well as its reconnaissance and surveillance activities, is unclear. However, this operation will partially disrupt future attacks, not only in Ukraine but also in any locations where Russia has a military footprint.
One reason these weapons are strategic is the cost of the aircraft's nuclear capability. They are no longer in mass production, and it would take a long time to rebuild them. Moscow might even consider scrapping the entire fleet. Nevertheless, this attack would not undermine Russia's vast inventory, especially its nuclear capabilities. Nevertheless, Russia should reassess the vulnerability of its strategically important air and naval bases, which house nuclear-capable submarines. Ukraine is very likely to carry out similar attacks more frequently, given its failure to achieve success on the main fronts and its increased deep strike capabilities.
Such an attack at a time when peace talks and negotiations are gaining momentum may be intended to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin politically that the war is still too costly and encourage him to take the talks seriously. However, such attacks may instead make Putin tougher. Moreover, Russia is likely to retaliate violently; otherwise, its deterrent capability would be severely damaged, which could lead to regime change in Moscow.
Russia is known for retaliating against attacks in a very loud way. Following the recent Ukrainian operation, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were already launched on the Kyiv and Mykolaiv lines. Hypersonic missiles have featured periodically throughout the war in Ukraine. Due to their high cost, they have only been used in strikes against precision targets. It is difficult to conclude that these were retaliatory strikes in response to Operation Spiderweb, given that Putin is likely to plan an even more sensational attack in the aftermath.
Sunday's swarm drone strikes did not have a tactical or operational impact on the course of the war, contrary to what an enthusiastic opinion argues. The same view characterizes them as Pearl Harbor, but there is no such similarity. In 1941, the retaliation for that surprise attack was a nuclear attack. Of course, attacking strategic air bases could be a pretext for the Russians to launch a nuclear weapon, but Moscow is unlikely to escalate nuclear tensions.
If one had to draw examples from the past, this attack could be likened to 9/11. After all, Putin views Ukraine as a terrorist state and is waging war under the guise of a terrorist operation. He can therefore legitimize his war on these grounds. If there is retaliation on that scale, it could involve the use of Oreshnik missiles.
This legitimization could also be based on the Russia versus NATO narrative. It is impossible to carry out such a large-scale operation without NATO's authorization or support. Furthermore, the suggestion that the U.S. is unaware of it does not reflect reality. U.S. troops are actively involved in executing the operation in Ukraine's command center, in both known and unknown ways. Germany, on the other hand, is responsible for the supply of the war, and even dispatches and executes it from the NATO base in Poland. The attack in Belaya base is allegedly supplied by trucks that are smuggled into Russia from Mongolia. Among the allegations, it is said that Kyiv carried out this operation with British intelligence. In this case, Russia should not only keep an eye on its western borders but also its eastern borders. The veracity of the allegations is debatable, but in the NATO structure created for Ukraine, the U.K. is in charge of intelligence activities. The U.K.'s defense review and moving war-fighting readiness, significant since it coincides with this period, acts as a deterrent against Russia.
In conclusion, while the military victory is significant and demonstrates that Ukraine remains a force on the battlefield, it is uncertain whether this operation will impact the overall outcome of the war. Additionally, it is doubtful that the attack has altered the character of the war. Drones have once again proven to be a force multiplier in modern warfare. While they may seem ineffective on their own, they enhance the capabilities of an army. This is similar to the historical introduction of tanks or F-16s, which made a noticeable difference in combat. Today's force multipliers are smaller and simpler. These new tools and tactics facilitate operations, making them easier and more agile, but they are unlikely to completely transform the rules of warfare, which remains a complex and multilayered phenomenon.
