As someone who closely follows Turkish politics, analyzing and keeping up with the developments of the main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), is really fascinating. It may be difficult for outsiders to grasp, but the CHP stands as a model opposition party on the global stage.
In Türkiye, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has held power for nearly 25 years and has never fallen to second place since its appearance on the political scene.
In the previous presidential elections, the opposition had a strong belief, from 2019 till the elections in 2023, that they would secure victory. They were convinced of their success and were not open to considering any alternative outcome. In other words, they proceeded under the assumption that their win was inevitable and focused on when the power would change hands. However, their calculations did not unfold as expected.
The opposition, led by the CHP, primarily consisted of republican and leftist intellectuals, journalists, approximately 20 research firms, CHP supporters and six smaller parties that collectively held less than 10% of the vote. In their television programs, they did not doubt that the AK Party and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had already lost, that they had effectively come to power and that all that remained was to officialize it through the election.
During the debates of this period, as the founder of one of Türkiye’s well-established research firms, I closely analyzed our data. Contrary to the opposition’s narrative, the reality was quite different. In all our measurements, there was a clear and consistent indication that Erdoğan was positioned to win in the second round.
The election took place, the results were announced and it became clear from the first evening that Erdoğan would secure victory in the second tour, leaving the opposition deeply disappointed.
For the opposition, this was not an easy setback to digest. Despite the unwavering confidence of the opposition in victory, it was facing yet another defeat. It was the 17th time Erdoğan had outmaneuvered his political rivals since his emergence on the political stage.
In the last local elections, the CHP managed to defeat the AK Party in a significant way. It was evident that the CHP received more total votes than the AK Party when the overall results were announced. In a sense, this indicated that the electorate had, at least in the local governance context, positioned the CHP as the leading party. For the first time since its founding, the AK Party fell to the position of the second party for a short while.
In previous elections, the CHP consistently gathered around 30% of the vote but had never reached this level in a general election. In fact, according to our measurements at GENAR Research, the CHP was ahead of the AK Party for two months.
However, owing to internal confusion within the party, the ongoing leadership race and the failure to develop coherent policies on broader issues, the CHP's share of the vote, which had stood at 37% in the local elections, declined back to 30%.
While the AK Party's votes were also around 30%, recent developments in Syria, Türkiye's bolstered position in international relations and the government's unwavering stability – regardless of external challenges – contributed to a rise in its support, increasing its vote share to approximately 34%.
Especially as the leadership struggle among Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu continues, the CHP has taken an interesting approach and direction. Through the votes of party members, they are set to elect their chairperson or one of the contenders — particularly Imamoğlu, as this expectation has emerged. They are considering announcing him as their presidential candidate. In other words, Imamoğlu has prematurely put forward his presidential candidacy and now finds himself in the position of having to manage it.
If an opposition party that positions itself close to government appears so disorganized, so indecisive and so distant from developing politics, it naturally amplifies the public's hesitation and skepticism toward it.
To understand how an opposition party repeatedly falls short of seizing power despite coming close, politicians worldwide should study the CHP case.
The factional dynamics within the CHP resemble crabs in a basket: each time one attempts to climb out, the others pull it back in. It seems that the opposition within the CHP has come to accept this fate as inevitable. In other words, the recent nomination and primary elections have, in a sense, created a self-sabotaging scenario, further fracturing the party from within.