For many years, Türkiye prided itself on its "young population advantage." This period, characterized by a high number of workers and low old-age dependency, made a significant contribution to the growth of the Turkish economy.
However, the picture is now evolving in a completely different direction. The fertility rate, which was 2.38 in 2001, dropped to 2.08 in 2017 and now stands at 1.48 as of 2024. This is far below the replacement level of 2.1. Consequently, Türkiye has become a country that can no longer sustain its population through natural means. The Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research's (SETA) "Social Panorama 2025" symposium clearly reveals this situation. So, what is the state doing to reverse this trend?
First, let us be clear: Population decline is not merely a demographic statistic; it is a fracture that affects the entire economic, social and cultural structure. With an aging population, a contraction in the workforce, pressure on the social security system, an increasing care burden, and a heavier load on the shoulders of the sandwich generation, it becomes inevitable. Therefore, the government has begun to reposition population policies at the center of its agenda, especially over the last two years.
At the symposium, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that while a decline in fertility is a global phenomenon, Türkiye is among the countries experiencing the fastest decline, alongside nations like South Korea and Malaysia. He noted that population reduction policies implemented in some countries in the past served as pilot programs and that Türkiye was one of the countries affected by this process.
One of the most concrete steps announced by Yılmaz at the symposium is the expansion of the Family and Youth Fund. Funded by natural gas and oil revenues, this program aims to make marriage and starting a family more attainable by extending interest-free loans to young couples. Raising the loan amount to TL 200,000 ($4.700) for young people aged 26-29 is a significant step in this direction.
Another significant move is the focus on structural barriers to fertility. The fact that cesarean section rates in Türkiye are far above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) averages makes the childbirth process more difficult, both medically and psychologically. The Ministry of Health's effort to revitalize the midwifery system is a strategic initiative aimed at reducing this problem. It is known that countries that have reduced their cesarean section rates tend to have more positive fertility trends.
A crucial aspect of population policies is improving the conditions of women in the workforce. Issues such as breastfeeding breaks, part-time work, flexible employment and early retirement have a direct impact on the lives of mothers, especially in major cities. As mentioned at the symposium, regional differences must be taken into account in these areas, and support mechanisms need to be robustly revised. The government’s efforts in this area aim to ease the financial burden of raising children, one of the most decisive factors influencing fertility.
Immigration is the new variable in the population equation. As expressed by Yılmaz, Türkiye is now a country that needs regular migration. Although this situation sparks debate in some circles, Europe's experience shows that the trend of aging, combined with low fertility, cannot be managed without migration. Türkiye is also beginning to recognize this reality.
While all these steps are critical, are they sufficient? The answer is no. The issue is not simple enough to be solved by economic incentives alone. Türkiye must offer its youth an education system that provides hope, women a safe working environment and families a social architecture that facilitates child-rearing.
In short, Türkiye is now taking the population crisis seriously. However, the success of this process depends not only on the state but also on society's ability to converge on a shared vision for the future. Population decline does not have to be Türkiye's destiny, provided we can view this crisis as the starting point for a multi-dimensional development initiative.
