The Gulf states established the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981 against the Iranian threat and the possibility of the exportation of the revolution. Although it was established out of security concerns, it evolved into a successful and effective regional integration process. This regional organization was established under Saudi Arabian leadership, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s regional hegemony.
However, in recent years, the United Arab Emirates has been trying to take over regional leadership from Riyadh. The UAE viewed the Arab uprisings and revolutions as an opportunity. The president of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, influenced the acting leader of the Saudi kingdom, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who was new and an inexperienced leader. The UAE tried to get Saudi Arabia to adopt a pro-Israel stance, and it was partially successful in doing so. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun to pursue policies that run parallel to each other. Both were anti-Iran, Türkiye and regional mainstream Islamic movements.
When looked at closely, it can be seen that Israel was behind the formation of the new balance of power in the Middle East. Israel, supported by the U.S., intervened in almost all regional developments. It played a significant role in regional projects following the Arab Spring, and the UAE provided it with the necessary support throughout this process. In other words, these two countries have been cooperating very closely since 2011 and playing effective roles in regional developments.
The UAE and Israel share a similar perspective on the Middle East. Both countries are struggling against not only Iran but also against mainstream Islamic movements and states that work for regional stability. These two states, which intervene in most regional crises, prefer regional chaos.
First of all, Israel and the U.S., together with some regional states, helped the Arab Spring turn into an "Arab Winter," the return of authoritarianism to the Arab world. Viewing the Arab revolutions as a direct threat to its national security, Israel supported all efforts to restore the status quo in the Arab world. The UAE has worked closely with the Israeli government in its struggle against the newly formed revolutionary governments in the Arab world.
Israel was at the center of the developments in the Gulf in the post-Arab Spring period. It persuaded the first Trump Administration to establish the “alliance of the globe” in the Middle East to fight against the powers of change and influenced the U.S. government to trigger the Gulf crisis in 2017. With the support and motivation provided by Israel and the U.S., a large coalition of the Arab world, led by the UAE, attempted to punish Qatar.
In that period, the main demands of the Gulf countries largely reflected those of the UAE and Israel. This is how the anti-Qatar regional project – designed by Israel, orchestrated by Trump and implemented by the UAE and Saudi Arabia – was realized. Nowadays, Riyadh and Doha are successful in taking effective confidence-building measures and cooperating in many issue areas. Some neutral states, such as Kuwait, have also begun to take the Saudi side, together with many other Arab states.
Following that, the UAE and Israel initiated the so-called new peace process in the Middle East under the auspices of the U.S. government. The UAE has led the Arab countries by signing an agreement that recognizes the state of Israel. The Abraham Accords, the name of a series of joint agreements mediated by the U.S. in 2020, that normalized relations between several Arab states (namely the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan) and Israel. This was an attempt to normalize Arab-Israeli relations and to establish a regional order providing regional domination of Israel. Eventually, Saudi Arabia did not join the Abraham Accords and did not bandwagon with the UAE and Israel.
After Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks against Israel, Israel has led a brutal military campaign against the Gaza Strip, which resulted in a dramatic genocide. The UAE and its allies in the Arab world have not reacted to Israel’s aggression against the Palestinians and many regional Arab states, such as Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia has been criticizing Israel for its aggression against other regional countries.
When Israel attacked Doha on Sept. 9, 2025, the capital of Qatar, with the consent of the U.S. government, most Arab countries were alarmed. They have realized that no state is immune to Israel’s aggression. They have largely lost trust in Western global powers, which had been their close allies. Therefore, Gulf countries opposed the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, but unfortunately, they were unable to prevent it. They were aware that the U.S., which did not prevent the Israeli aggression against Qatar, one of the closest allies of the West, would not protect them against the Iranian attacks. And unfortunately, this turned out to be true.
Now, the most recent American and Israeli attacks against Iran have led to a new way of thinking in the Arab world. Although all Gulf countries were hit by Iran, the Arab Gulf countries have remained calm and have not retaliated against Iran. Reading claims of the Iranian officials and comments of international observers, only the UAE closely worked with the U.S. and Israel in their attacks against Iran. Therefore, Iran attacked the Emirati targets several days ago.
Not only the Iranian attacks, but also the statements made by the Emirati officials show that the UAE is determined to break away from the rest of the Arab world. The UAE first declared its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the oil cartel. It can be easily inferred that this was mainly a reaction to Saudi Arabia, one of the main players of OPEC.
It is now clear that the crack with the Gulf countries cannot be mended in a short period. If possible, it will take a long time to recover the tension within the Gulf. The most recent developments have changed the ground in the region greatly. The rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia is growing wider. This is a new and risky reality for the UAE. By opposing the Saudi kingdom, it may isolate itself in the region. Saudi Arabia is one of the main sources of legitimacy in the Arab world. Any state that is isolated by Saudi Arabia will likely also be isolated by most Arab states. Furthermore, any state that forms a strategic alliance with Israel will be ostracized by Arab states, which realize that they will not be protected by any external powers when being attacked.
Therefore, if it does not change its foreign policy orientation, it will be quite difficult for the UAE to find a proper place in the new regional balance of power and a new regional order. It will be quite risky and costly for the UAE to get ostracized by the rest of the Arab and Muslim countries.
