As the distance between the United States and Europe widens, especially after the Syrian people's revolution and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy-U.S.President Donald Trump meeting last week, a German journalist posted a brief message on X: "Rule one of geopolitics: Erdoğan always wins!"
For a journalist to make such a claim, there must be solid reasoning and well-founded motives behind it. This expression accurately captures Türkiye's geopolitical trajectory over the past decade because, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye always found a way to win.
So, while European states clash with the U.S. and, in a way, as the U.S. pushes Europe into Russia's lap, why is Türkiye winning? The phrase Erdoğan frequently uses, "Standing on the right side of history," might be the best interpretation of Türkiye's international diplomacy and strategy.
Let’s explain Türkiye's steadily winning position with a few examples.
When the civil war in Libya reached a critical stage, and conflicts erupted between coup leader Khalifa Haftar and the legitimate government, eight to 10 countries sided with Haftar, including Greece, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and many others. However, Erdoğan, despite the unclear position of the U.S., stood by the legitimate government and took a firm stance. And suppose today there is no conflict in Libya. In that case, if there is semi-stability and the legitimate government is gaining strength day by day, this can be explained by Erdoğan's position of "standing on the right side of history."
On the other hand, the crisis in Libya and the natural gas disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean also created a conflict zone. When Egypt, France, Greece, Israel and southern Cyprus all took a position to exclude Türkiye from the maritime zone, Türkiye sent its navy and drilling ships to the Mediterranean. Today, when you look at the conditions, the coalition behind this has fallen apart, and Türkiye, once again, has strengthened its position by standing on the right side of history.
Similarly, during the Azerbaijan-Armenia war, Russia and the U.S. positioned themselves as active global players. However, Türkiye decisively supported Azerbaijan without hesitation, providing advanced defense industry products that played a crucial role in securing Azerbaijan's victory. In particular, after the Karabakh war, Türkiye began to be taken seriously by states worldwide.
These may have been regions within Türkiye’s natural sphere of influence. However, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE imposed a blockade on Qatar and sought to change its leadership, Türkiye took a bold stance, actively supporting Qatar’s government and solidifying their lasting alliance. In many ways, this was a move beyond Türkiye’s traditional sphere of influence, yet by positioning himself strategically, Erdoğan secured a significant political victory.
On the other hand, perhaps the most prominent position in Türkiye's foreign policy emerged during the Ukrainian-Russian war. The U.S. rallied Western states. While Biden worked to rebuild the EU, which Trump had fractured during his first term, he also steered it toward war. As tensions deepened between Russia and the West, Türkiye – despite being a NATO ally – reinforced its independent and neutral stance. With all lines of communication between the West and Russia severed Türkiye emerged as the only NATO country capable of engaging with both sides – a position of immense strategic value.
At the time, the Turkish opposition was calling for an immediate return to NATO's strategic framework, urging the government to send back the S-400 missiles and abandon its so-called "fantastical" neutral policies. These views were widely shared by the then-chairperson of the main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and the then-chairperson of the Good Party (IP), Meral Akşener.
However, as Russia and Ukraine come to the negotiating table – perhaps moving toward peace – many European countries find themselves in an awkward position. Meanwhile, Türkiye, with its balanced and fair stance, once again finds itself on the right side of history.
Among recent developments, the Syrian civil war has been the key issue that has strengthened Türkiye’s geopolitical standing. As is well known, Russia, Iran and the Assad regime were the primary actors in Syria. However, these external powers, along with the regime, lost their legitimacy by treating the Syrian people as occupiers. In contrast, Türkiye, which prioritized the well-being of the Syrian people and had no agenda beyond preserving Syria’s territorial integrity, stood on the right side of history. Today, Türkiye holds the strongest and most influential position in shaping Syria’s reconstruction.
When considering these developments – big and small – from Somalia to Sudan and beyond, it becomes clear that Türkiye’s strategic policies are beginning to yield tangible results. If not today, then certainly tomorrow. This success may stem from the fair, pragmatic and inclusive approach that Erdoğan has introduced to international diplomacy – one that seeks to minimize harm and ensure mutual benefit for all nations.
At a time when Western influence is waning, and mid-tier powers like Türkiye are rising, Türkiye has transcended its status as a regional actor to become a key global player in diplomacy, shaping international affairs in meaningful ways.
This transformation has been built on Türkiye’s historical mission, economic strength and formidable military. Still, it is Erdoğan’s leadership on the world stage that has amplified this role, cementing Türkiye’s influence in global politics.
