With less than two months until the presidential elections in Türkiye, the world is closely following the latest developments.
Let's look at the latest situation: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has held power for 21 years, is currently the frontrunner in the election. The vote of Erdoğan, who garnered 51.6% of the votes in the previous election and had beaten his closest rival, the Homeland Party (MP) Chairperson Muharrem Ince, by a lead of 22 points, is polling above his party, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Even in opposition polling, Erdoğan maintains a significant lead.
Therefore, the “table for six” formed under the leadership of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is trying to gather all anti-Erdoğan elements.
In a bid to unseat President Erdoğan, a diverse group of political factions such as secularists, anti-refugee fascists, moderate Muslims, radical leftists and secular nationalists, have come together at the same “table.” Last, the “table” included the separatist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) – the PKK terrorist organization’s “legal party.”
Furthermore, Kılıçdaroğlu has promised a vice presidency to every actor invited to the “table.” The number of these deputies, which the elected president cannot step without asking, has already reached seven – with more expected in the future.
The reason for all these concessions is based on simple arithmetic: When the estimated votes of the actors who are diametrically opposed and even hostile to each other are gathered together, they calculate that their joint candidate Kılıçdaroğlu will defeat Erdoğan.
While the alliance may have a chance of success on paper, it remains to be seen if it will hold up in practice. Democracy is not "merely a numbers game," and reactions to including certain actors in the coalition have already been conveyed.
For example, Meral Akşener, who represents the Turkish nationalists at the "table," faces an uphill battle in convincing her party, the Good Party (IP), and its supporters to form an alliance with the controversial HDP. Despite leaving the alliance because of doubts about its chances of success, Akşener eventually agreed to rejoin. However, her party and supporters were not pleased, feeling humiliated by the concession.
As a result, the nationalists have shifted their support to Ince, who declared his candidacy for the presidency independently of the opposition alliance. Currently, the support for Ince stands at around 5% in the polls.
The "table for six" is focused on preventing a split in their votes and maintaining their momentum heading into the elections. In an attempt to discredit Ince, whom they think will split their votes, and undermine his campaign, the opposition alliance has resorted to making allegations of harassment and threats against him. Ince himself has accused the main opposition CHP, of organizing the campaign against him after he declined their invitation to join the alliance.
Amid internal conflicts and infighting, the opposition bloc is also looking for legal avenues to prevent President Erdoğan from running for reelection. They are pressuring the Supreme Election Council (YSK) to reject Erdoğan's candidacy application, but the Constitution clarifies that there are no legal barriers to his candidacy.
This desperate attempt to block Erdoğan's candidacy reveals the failure of the “table for six,” which promises more democracy, to beat him at the ballot box. This sense of helplessness and lack of strategy is also likely to increase the despair of opposition voters.
Yes, this is it.
As seen, the opposition bloc has a great share in voters’ seeing Erdoğan, who could never let go of the reins of the electorate, as a haven despite the devastating February earthquakes and economic hardships.
I think the voters who understand the importance of preserving Türkiye’s power, integrity and democracy in such a volatile region, will realize that in times of crisis, the country cannot afford to take any unnecessary risks or engage in reckless adventures. They will not change their preferences in the upcoming elections.
