The war in Ukraine has already completed its first month and the picture is horrifying. Civilian deaths are counted by the thousands and the number of injured and missing is unknown. Yet, in such a dark moment, there’s also hope. For the first time, the Istanbul talks, where the Ukrainian and Russian delegations met for a political solution, offered the most solid ground for dialogue. Moscow, for example, even claimed to have retreated from the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv and has already started pulling out its soldiers.
Ukraine and the West have suspicions about Moscow’s sincerity, which is understandable since promises should be backed by actions. It is thought that Russia might be trying to trick Ukraine. However, the channel opened with the help of Turkey or, in another word, the diplomacy of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, is a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war. The world is watching Turkey’s diplomatic efforts to bring the two sides together. Erdoğan spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, respectively, and urged both the leaders to come together in Turkey for face-to-face dialogue.
Erdogan and Putin discussed the Istanbul meeting, which the Turkish leader said raised hopes for peace and described as "constructive" and "positive," while Putin thanked Erdoğan for hosting the gathering. During the call with Zelenskyy, Erdoğan said that Turkey is ready in principle to act as a security guarantor country for Ukraine.
I believe that, with such peace efforts, both sides are closer to having a discussion. Erdoğan said that Zelenskyy is very positive about meeting face-to-face with Putin, while Putin, in turn, has expressed a positive stance, which is new since the Russian leader was reluctant to meet earlier.
Turkey’s position is key here. The country is a NATO member, it borders Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea and it has good economic and military ties with both sides. For example, in 2018, the Fener Greek Orthodox Patriarchate granted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church autocephaly in Istanbul. Turkey sold the Bayraktar armed drones, which have become Kyiv’s strongest weapon, to Ukraine while it also purchased S-400s from Moscow. Turkey relies heavily on Russian tourists but opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya and stands up against the annexation of Crimea to Russia.
These are all the results of Turkey’s multidimensional foreign policy. It has given Ankara unique staying power that goes beyond reforming Cold War blocks. Of course, it is a member of NATO and a candidate state to the European Union, but it does not want to repeat the Cold War two-dimensional foreign policy rhetoric. I think this gives Turkey and Erdoğan a special power over international politics.
