You must know Mr. Karaganov, Sergei Alexandrovich Karaganov. Once an unofficial advisor to the Kremlin and leaders including President Vladimir Putin, now he heads the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy. Karaganov believes that after four years, four months, one week and five days, Europe has finally realized it is at war with Russia on Ukrainian territory. But they are still not aware of the fact that Russia is not fighting a war with Europe, yet!
Karaganov is not playing with words; he is not only a political scientist who heads the Russian Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, but also the dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow's Higher School of Economics. And Russian! So, he hates small talk like all his fellow compatriots. As Chekhov used to say, when a stranger smiles at another person in Russia, the first reaction is, "Why is he smiling at me?" since they know the person is not simply trying to be friendly. So, a cashier will not say, "How are you today?" because he is only supposed to tell you the total you have to pay.
I am not trying to portray Russians as "all work no play." That would make even Ivan a dull boy! Here is a joke from Garry Kasparov, the Russian pro-democracy activist and former world chess champion: U.S. President Donald Trump, in the afterlife, is granted permission to return to Earth for one hour. He goes into a bar in New York City and asks the bartender how things are going for America. The amazed man says, "Wow, sir, we have the most incredible empire thanks to you! Greenland, Panama and Canada!" "That's great," says Trump, asking, "What about Europe? "Oh yes," says the bartender, "They also couldn't resist us!" "That's so beautiful," says Trump. "Well, I have to go back now. How much do I owe you?" "One ruble and 50 kopeks," replies the bartender.
Back to Karaganov! He is such a serious person that he has been sanctioned by seven countries and the European Union. He cannot even travel to Monaco! I don’t know how rich he is, but he cannot have a bank account in any Swiss bank! I am sure he wouldn’t care less; but those sanctions testify that Karaganov is considered a dangerous person in Europe. The reason must be the fact that Sergei Alexandrovich belongs to a faction within the Russian elite that considers Putin’s approach toward the West too moderate. To be more accurate, Karaganov wants Russia to use nuclear weapons against Europe should it ever feel that it is losing the ongoing war with Ukraine.
An ally and former adviser to President Putin and former President Boris Yeltsin, Karaganov thinks Europe is preparing its population for total war with Russia, and Russians have no channels for cooperation with NATO, except the U.S. officials at the highest level.
"Western Europe has cut itself off from us," says Karaganov and adds: "We must overcome the strategic parasitism that has formed over the past few years and has, above all, affected the European population. They have lost their fear of war, especially of a nuclear war. Ironically, it was precisely this fear that had been a stabilizing factor for the past 70 years. Europe, which historically was a source of major conflicts, of racism, and colonialism, could temporarily forget its responsibility and guilt toward the world thanks to the bipolar stability between the USA and the USSR. Now that the greatest threat emanates from Europe, we must remember that Europe has historically been involved in major wars. It does not necessarily require direct violence, but the restoration of the fear of war, including the revival of the fear of a nuclear war. This is a key element for leading Europe back to its geopolitical responsibility."
Now, could it be that the NATO chief would not understand this? Mark Rutte says this week’s Ankara summit "is about delivery." Speaking at an Atlantic Council event, he argued that the Ankara summit could wind up "even more important" than last year’s in The Hague, where allies committed to spending 5% of their gross domestic product on defense.
"In the end," he said, Russian President Vladimir Putin “is not afraid of commitments. He is afraid of implementing those commitments," and directly addressed Putin: "That is exactly what we are doing, Vladimir." According to the NATO chief, if Putin makes "a silly move" against the alliance, "we are ready to defend ourselves."
What about a silly move by those Europeans who so enthusiastically embraced the Ukraine war that America brought upon them? As long as Trump (and those Republican politicians) are at the helm of that war, the probability of NATO’s European members doing a silly thing that Karaganov has been warning Putin about was close to nil. But, besides the "incredibly huge gift" Trump is going to present President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the U.S. media say that Trump will deliver another huge package to the NATO allies: Washington will no longer play the role of the "world's policeman."
Since his first term at the White House, U.S. conservatives rubbing their hands in glee, European conservatives faintheartedly kept talking about the possibility of the United States stepping back as world gendarmerie. Even progressive Europeans know that such a move would leave a huge void; no one can replace the U.S., not even the EU.
Last year, on Sept. 19, the alliance scrambled several fighter jets after three Russian MiG-31 aircraft entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Russian fighter jets entered and stayed in its airspace above the Gulf of Finland, which Russia has denied the violation of Estonia’s airspace.
If you are the chief of NATO, you are supposed to be familiar with Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea between NATO countries Lithuania and Poland. If you fly, as Moscow claimed, over international waters and you want to return to Kaliningrad, you enter either Poland’s or Lithuania’s airspace. It is being done several times every month. Thank God, unlike Rutte, two Italian pilots in F-35 fighter jets, who had taken off from NATO’s Baltic Air Base in Estonia, did not do anything "silly," but escorted Russians into international airspace!
Nevertheless, Rutte and his under-secretaries organized meeting after meeting about this Russian intrusion, which "endangered recent diplomatic efforts to bring an end to this unprovoked and brutal war" in Ukraine! See! It is so easy to link everything to Ukraine. Given the Ukrainians' clever false-flag operations and other similar provocations, our beloved NATO might easily fall into that "something silly" trap.
President Erdogan urged the leaders to strengthen the coordination and cooperation within NATO. Hopefully, the Ankara summit will be remembered by the realization of such coordination that will prevent what Mr. Karaganov thinks will eventually come around: A Russian intimidation of Europe to prevent a European adventurousness!
The question for Türkiye is how to keep out of harm’s way. No one escapes from fate simply by dithering around the corner. Europe may stop spending more and sending more ammunition to Ukraine. Putin may stop believing (quite correctly, by the way) that Europe has basically declared war on Russia. Trump, who once promised to shut this war down, looked like he was going to be a man of his word. Eventually, he may have time to work with his "buddy" Putin, since he has time from the events in Iran.
In all these eventualities, Türkiye, with its strong commitment to independence in defense and foreign relations, will succeed in keeping clear of dangers, risks and perils. Besides, Trump cannot say goodbye to being the sheriff of the Wild West(ern Europe). If he does, he probably appoints Erdoğan as his deputy; and in any case, Erdoğan is the only Western leader who can talk to both sides in the Ukraine war.
P.S. For the last 10 years, we have been together on this column in Daily Sabah. All good things have an end. So, while I say goodbye, I wish y’all the best.
